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The people have spoken – but what did they say?

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Taking a peek at the votes for Galway West in the count centre at the Bailey Allen Hall in NUIG. Photo: Joe O’Shaughnessy.

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

I  think Bill Clinton’s well-minted phrase is very apt in light of what happened this weekend. Speaking about the outcome of the 2000 presidential election involving George W Bush and Al Gore, he said:

“The American people have now spoken, but it’s gonna take a little while to determine exactly what they said.”

There have been times in the past that the mathematics of election outcome have forced unlikely – and until then inconceivable – combinations.

Look at the deals Fianna Fáil did with the Progressive Democrats in 1989 and with the Labour Party in 1992.

But this is a horse of a different colour. With the Dáil reduced to 158 seats, no party is within 25 seats of reaching the magic number of 78. Even if Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin were to completely do the dirt on their solemn electoral vows and try to form a coalition, they would still be over ten seats short of gaining a majority.

And so of course, all attention has now turned to the two large parties. On Saturday evening Fine Gael’s election looked headed for a disastrous with the possibility of it being eclipsed by Fianna Fáil.

The parties finished with only one percentage point of support separating them which is extraordinary. But Fine Gael got a bit of a seat bounce that allowed it increase the gap and creep over 50 seats.

That was largely thanks to the transfers of losing Labour TDs. Sinn Féin also gained seats but disappointed its own expectations. It had some good wins but lost out in some key constituencies.

The loss of Padraig Mac Lochlainn’s seat in Donegal was a terrible blow and the failure of Trevor Ó Clochartaigh’s in Galway West and Paul Donnelly in Dublin West were also surprises.

For the Labour Party it is a disaster and there is no glossing it. Elections are an Old Testament experience for the smaller party and they were well and truly smited. The exact moment it lost this election was February 2011 when it placed the infamous Tesco Ad.

There’s no doubt that Fianna Fáil were the big winners, given where they came from. Sinn Féin has used the genius (and disingenuous) argument that it’s the second worst election in Fianna Fáil history.

Which is true – but the worst was 2011 and to come from there to where it is now is a big big achievement.

The party caught momentum and then some. Its messages on fairness struck a better chord that that of the other parties. Micheál Martin bested his rivals in the key debates and interviews.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

 

Connacht Tribune

The fine art of good timing when it comes to elections

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Charlie Haughey...snap election backfired on him.

World of Politics with Harry McGee

Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.

Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?

Timing is everything.

And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.

Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.

After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).

So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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Connacht Tribune

Inch protest arguments are more subtle than Oughterard

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Minister Roderic O’Gorman: promise of more emergency beds.

World of Politics with Harry McGee

I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.

About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.

Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.

The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.

They are still huge numbers in a historical context.

So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.

It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.

Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite  HERE.

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The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

 

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Sinn Féin hunt for seats in ‘locals’ across Galway

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Sinn Féin's Cathal Ó Conchúir, Mairéad Farrell and Mark Lohan all lost their seats in Galway City in 2019

World of Politics with Harry McGee

God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!

Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!

I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.

The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.

It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.

It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.

Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App

Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.

Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite  HERE.

Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.

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