Political World
Popularity upsurge sees Adams at a crossroads
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Being in government is like buying a new car – as soon as you drive away from the forecourt, it starts to lose value. Sinn Fein has a very big decision to make in 2016, or maybe in late 2015. Gerry Adams gave a strong hint of the weekend about his party’s intentions after the next general election.
He told over 200s councillors (well over 100 newly elected), TDs, Senators, MLAS, MPS and MEPS that the party would need to begin preparing for government.
He made a point of telling delegates that he did not want his party to be like Labour.
Sinn Fein, he said, would not be a party that would give cover to the policies of a Conservative party.
Of course, like all political speeches, Adams went long on aspiration but very short on detail. Rhetoric is the discourse of opposition parties.
That is fine and dandy. The Labour Party did very well in opposition when spelling out absolutely no details about policy.
It was only when Eamon Gilmore was challenged about his tax and spending plans that Labour support dropped back.
So what do we know about Sinn Féin? Well, at the weekend Gerry Adams spoke specifically about only one issue – republicanism.
Which is fair enough. A united Ireland is at the heart of Sinn Féin’s objectives.
There is only one snag with that particular approach. The party’s image in the South has very little to do with a United Ireland. Sinn Fein has forged its reputation down here not on uniting the island but as a protest party. It has opposed austerity, property taxes, water charges and health card cuts among many other issues.
And though it has produced costed budges alternatives, the figures do not really add up. Even if the party were in a single party government, those figures would not be attainable. Not in a million years.
So what is the party going to retain and what is it going to ditch in coalition, it the numbers are pointing to a combination of Sinn Féin and one of the two traditional parties?
Well, the only matter on which Adams nailed his mast (under questioning from Cathal Mac Coille on Morning Ireland) was on the property tax. Pearse Doherty had told the Sunday Business Post the previous day that Sinn Féin would scrap the tax in government. Adams agreed. So that’s a non-negotiable then.
But beyond that he would not go. He was pressed by Mac Coille on Sinn Féin’s budget submission which proposed a 48 per cent tax for those earning over €100,000. But he refused to commit on this and other matters, saying the party needed to identify its policy priorities.
The moment a party enters coalition its value diminishes, and it will lose the votes of a portion of floating voters forever. Sinn Féin knows it won’t get away with vague rhetoric and will be required to spell out the rhyme and reason of all its policy positions.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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