Political World
Politicians seek the perfect wave – not a political storm
Political World with Harry McGee
The calculation used by politicians is a little like that used by surfers when they paddle their boards out into the sea – they know conditions could be fine but they’re still hanging on until the perfect wave comes along.
So how do they know which one it is? Well it’s a combination of skill and timing and a bit of luck. But if all of the conditions fall into place, they can get up onto the crest and surf that wave all the way home.
Timing is a key factor in politics too, knowing if the time is right to start paddling furiously or if it’s better to wait for a better wave to come along.
Take Fianna Fáil. If Brian Cowen had been a cuter politician (but not necessarily a better citizen) he could have called a snap election in 2008 or early 2009. The chances are that Fianna Fáil would have lost that election and gone into opposition.
But the net effect would have been that they would have left a Fine Gael coalition take most the brunt of the hurricane that was welling up. While not getting away scot free the party would have been in a far stronger position for the next election than the much reduced entity of 2011.
So what about Fine Gael and Labour? Well, the expectations for both parties were low. To listen to some commentators you’d think that they took us out of the sewer and threw us all into the swamp.
There have been some remarkable achievements. The Troika is gone. We are no longer in a bailout programme. There is growth in the economy (last year’s figures were tremendous but many not be maintained).
For the first time in five years, there is more money – however slight – in many people’s pockets. The State can borrow money at rates only slightly higher than that for Germany, the EU’s most solid performer.
And yet, it’s getting in the neck. Tánaiste Joan Burton may be telling us that the recovery is real but the reality is that its effects are not trickling down to ordinary people.
At an earlier stage, the phrase ‘jobless recovery’ was being bandied about, to explain why the economy was growing but no jobs were being created (what seems like technical treatment of export figures was responsible for that). It hasn’t been helped by the fact that there were a couple of nasty stings in the tail that came out of the Troika years – namely the water charges and the lingering resistance to the property tax.
On the face of it, it is astounding that people seemed to be willing to grin and bear it (well, whinge a little bit) during the worst years, but as soon as things get better, the parties with the strongest anti-austerity messages have got huge purchase.
Why is that? It’s possibly because people are now saying we are told that things are getting better and we have made huge sacrifices. But I don’t see any evidence of it and now with new charges, I am reaching the end of my tether.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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