Political World
Mid-term votes offer an indicator after all
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
One of the cardinal rules for political commentators is to discount secondary elections – bye-elections, locals, Presidential and European – when it comes to indicating the lie of the land.
It’s because they are usually held mid-term and the received wisdom is they do not give a good guide as to what happens in the general election.
The reason for that stems from a history of strong governments having lousy mid-term elections. During its long period of power, Fianna Fáil had a number of indifferent local elections – and it made not a whit of difference when it came to the general election.
That phenomenon was probably at its most obvious across the water in Britain during the Blair years. Labour had some abysmal local elections, ceding shire after shire to the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. Yet Blair romped up in three successive wins.
These second-tier elections are usually held in mid-term when people don’t really care as much, or think as much, about their choice of government. And there are always a range of other reasons to vote.
Many councillors, irrespective of party allegiance, will win support based on their recognisability, and work in the community. European elections have become beauty contests, devoid of context or of issues.
They are all the reasons that they have stayed as discounted goods.
But a funny thing has happened in the past two local elections, in 2009 and 2014. They have almost exactly mirrored the support levels for each party. In 2009, the locals saw massive falls in support for the ruling government parties, Fianna Fáíl and the Greens. The latter lost 13 of its 16 council seats, ending up with only three.
That pattern repeated itself in the election. Both Fine Gael and Labour made significant gains in that election – signalling a surge for them.
The only anomaly was Sinn Féin. It had a poor election in 2007. It had a poor local election in 2009, returning about 50 seats, the same as it had. The swing towards the party started later, from the autumn of 2010.
And then in 2014, the local elections showed swings that would be repeated in this year’s general election. Sinn Féin almost tripled its seats. It was starting from a low base but it was now commanding support of 15 per cent, which it repeated in the February elections. Labour’s stock plummeted, losing over 80 seats and ending up with 50. Its seven per cent support is what it would get in the election. Similarly Fianna Fail rose to 25, with Fine Gael at 24. That was a proximate enough to their general election performances.
What does it tell us? Well, local elections are held closer to general elections these days (less than two years) and the big election does not seem quite so remote. Secondly, the State has been in such turmoil over the past eight years that parties have been on a general election footing.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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