Political World
Kelly caught between the devil and the deep blue sea
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
Alan Kelly finds himself in a classic Catch 22 situation – he wants to run in the Labour leadership contest but cannot.
He is the only one of the seven surviving TDs who really wants the leadership and has the fire in his belly – but his problem is that none of the other six particularly want him to be the leader.
The other main contender, Brendan Howlin, has had to be cajoled and does not seem to want job that badly – but he will take it to prevent the other guy from getting it.
Alan Kelly’s big problem is that he might have difficulty finding a seconder. With no seconder he can’t stand.
The possibility he might command more support among the party’s wider membership becomes irrelevant. If he can’t get off the base, it’s a strike out and there’s no point in talking about home runs.
Kelly has made a few barnstorming speeches in the past few weeks and has clearly appealed over the heads of his Dáil colleagues to the wider membership.
And if the contest went to the wider membership it is likely that the younger, brasher, hungrier Kelly would get it. He has made a hames of a number of his policy items. He over-promised on what he could deliver on housing. He did not have a great innings as director of elections for Labour in the general election. But no matter what magic he could have spun, he was dealt a dud hand there; Labour was always on a big loser.
The party has until Friday to make up its mind. At the time of writing it seemed none of the other six were willing to give Kelly a seconder.
All seemed to be holding and ground; prepared to take a short-term hit for not allowing Kelly to run.
The instincts might tell one or two that they should second him even though they don’t support him, in the interests of giving him a chance and opening to the question to the wider membership.
But look at what happened when British Labour MPs who were not supporters of Jeremy Corbyn signed his nomination papers to allow him into the race. They never expected him to win – and then he did, for better or for worse.
Ditto with Kelly; he really divides opinion. Some think he is the only one with the energy and capability to recover the party’s fortunes. Others think he will drive it into ruin.
It creates a problem for Labour and one that is not unfamiliar to the left in Irish politics.
The smaller a left-wing party is, the more likely a split.
As the Labour Party ship quickly sunk in the February election, at least the orchestra played in unison (if dominated by wailing violins).
But as soon as the seven survivors clambered onto the life-raft any patina of unity has vanished and they started bickering and rowing with each other.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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