Political World
Keeping a weather eye on summer political climate
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
There’s a postman in Donegal and there is some other dude in New Zealand who purport to be expert in predicting the weather. From time to time we hear claims that their forecasts are more accurate than the meteorologists.
It’s not exactly as they are taking on an all-knowing entity.
Weather forecasts are tricky, especially for an island nation in the North Atlantic.
As far as I can discern the term ‘sunny spells and scattered showers’ encompasses both the possibility of a hurricane and a drought.
And so let’s segue over to politics and the gnarled question of opinion polls. What do they tell us? Well, a little bit like a weather forecast they set out a likely scenario but if you were to swear your life on it, would you rely on it? Ahem, the answer to that has to be No.
Remember, in the summer of 2010 the opinion polls were showing Labour support at over 30 per cent and we saw the ill-advised poster campaign with the logo “Gilmore for Taoiseach”. Oops, that wasn’t a very clever strategic move.
Labour did splendidly in the end and won more seats than ever before but on far more modest support levels of about 19.5 per cent. That was a full 13 per cent shy of its opinion poll ratings from just eight months beforehand.
Of course, politics is a tide that is constantly rising and receding. Fortunes ebb and flow – events determine successes and failures. But a 13 per cent swing in the course of eight months shows that ‘caveat emptor’ nature of polls
How accurate are the polls that are being churned out at the rate of one or two a month at the moment? My answer – not very accurate.
For one, there are seasonal factors. Government parties tend to do better immediately after the summer break. The reason is simple. Politics is on holidays and there have been no controversies so the levels of ire are lower… for the moment!
In addition, I know full well from being a human being that despite my best efforts at boring them into submission that most people are not all that interested in politics for most of the time.
The only time a majority does become interested is when there is a massive issue or controversy or when there is a general election. So a fair chunk of people who are polled in non-election periods have not really thought about politics or about how they vote. They give an opinion off the top of their head that they have not really committed to. When the time comes to cast an actual vote their frame of mind is completely different.
A party or cause can be fashionable or there may be a degree of cynicism. But those are never enough to sway a vote in a polling booth.
Look at those tempting Labour figures, or the good will the Green Party was getting on its climate change stance during the good years or the current vogue of independence and ‘none of the above’.
Will those support levels be sustained? In one word, nah.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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