Political World
Election may take the air out of any Burton bounce
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Nothing like a bit of alliteration for the headline writers! When the latest Sunday Times opinion poll was published at the weekend, the surge in support for the Labour Party was unsurprisingly shorthanded to the Burton Bounce.
Sure, it was a good result for Labour. The party doubled its support from seven per cent in the local elections to 14 per cent, the first time its support has crept into double figures in almost two years.
And the factors were easy when it came to attribution. Joan Burton was elected leader not a wet week before. The upswing could be put down almost wholly to her influence on the party.
I don’t want to rain on Labour’s parades but the unfortunate thing is that history is against it pulling any rabbits from the hat at the next general election. No matter how good Labour does over the next 198 months; no matter how well the economy recovers, it’s going to be an uphill struggle.
I wrote a piece during the leadership campaign that expressed pessimism about a Labour recovery and predicted the party’s seats might fall into single figures after the election (from a record 37 in 2011).
A very senior backroom figure texted me saying that it was its belief that Labour could very well be ‘regrouping’ (ie licking its wounds) in the bosom of government after the next election rather than on the chilly backbenches.
According to this person, the conventional wisdom at this moment doesn’t make it an option but a lot can change in two years.
Pointing out that coalition with Labour was also Fine Gael’s preferred option by a long shot, the person said if Fine Gael got 60 seats and Labour got low twenties it would not be impossible, particularly with a “Burton Bounce” (I checked last night, these were the actual words the person used so it’s not only journalists who have a grá for alliteration).
Another argument advanced by the Labour side is that there are downside risks for Sinn Fein in adopting its holier-than-thou and we are ideologically pure stance. If it stays out of government in 2016, it might suffer the same fate as the Grillo movement in Italy, say the Labourites.
Well, there’s eating and drinking in all that. There’s no doubt that Joan Burton has given Labour a bounce since becoming leader and will give the party an energy and ‘tempo’ that had maybe flagged under Eamon Gilmore in recent months.
But one opinion poll does not an election make. And her big challenge will be sustaining that bounce – without allowing it to falter appreciably – between now and 2016.
Labour’s cause will be helped by an improving economy and some new faces. Having said that not all her choices at senior level are exceptionally inspiring and I think it is in the junior ranks that we may see some exciting ideas and initiatives (as well as in from the ambitious deputy leader Alan Kelly).
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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