Political World
Domestic blitz might limit Labour damage
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
The greatest piece of unasked for, and unwanted, advice so far this year was delivered by Joan Burton last week.
The Minister for Social Protection helpfully suggested to her boss, Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore, that he’d been long enough rowing his boat on the big oceans of the world and it was time to return to shore, to a “domestic” ministry, as she suggested.
Burton, of course, is also deputy leader of the Labour Party and has made no secret about having leadership ambitions. Those ambitions might actually coincide with a job opportunity sometime in late May or early June. But Burton, of course, is too polite and too canny to profess any interest in a vacancy that might or might not arise.
Will Labour fare badly in the election? Is the Pope a Catholic? I’m afraid it’s not going to be the party’s greatest hour.
There’s nothing personal in it. But voters tend to use these second-tier elections as an excuse for giving the government of the day a boot. And no shoe leather will be spared in administering it to the junior coalition party.
If you are reading the Passion of Christ this weekend I would think the character named Judas would best represent the Labour Party for former supporters (although a more secular example might be more appropriate).
In any instance, the party is going to struggle. The recent Irish Times/Ipsos/mrbi poll was quite telling. It showed the party support at eight per cent.
On a regional breakdown, it was slightly up in Dublin at eleven per cent, which suggests it was in the low single digits in Connacht.
Many of the gains the party made in the local and European elections in 2009 are going to be reversed. Like the Greens the party may find itself without a single European seat and a much diminished representation at local government level – down below 100 seats despite an overall increase in county and city council numbers.
Crucially in Dublin the party may go from first or second in the four local authorities to fourth, or even fifth – a very sorry state of affairs.
Labour has a very enthusiastic and articulate candidate in our sprawling European constituency – which we all call the Malin M50. But in terms of an uphill struggle, Lorraine Higgins would find it easier to solo the North Face of the Eiger than win one of the four seats.
If you look through parties who have experienced dismal mid-term elections, the reaction is relatively predictable. A sense of urgency verging on panic becomes apparent. There are heated parliamentary party meetings and national executive meetings at which blame and recrimination are thrown about like confetti at a wedding.
Then the party leadership vows that it will respond by a process involving both renewal and catharsis. The renewal bit usually involves a nationwide tour by the leadership where they effect sincerity and ‘listen’ to the concerns of the grassroots.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune
The fine art of good timing when it comes to elections
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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Connacht Tribune
Inch protest arguments are more subtle than Oughterard
World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Connacht Tribune
Sinn Féin hunt for seats in ‘locals’ across Galway
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.