Political World
Political guessing game is like Third Secret of Fatima
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
In 1981 there was an international incident when an Aer Lingus plane was hijacked. The Minister of Transport at the time was Albert Reynolds and it was his job to brief the world media about the developing events.
Initially it was thought the hijacker was Iranian but it turned out he was an Australian called Larry Downey, a former Trappist Monk who was not the full shilling.
A BBC reporter asked Reynolds what the man who had held up the crew and passenger was?
“He wants us to reveal the Third Secret of Fatima,” replied Reynolds, in all seriousness. For that was indeed the deranged man’s bizarre demand.
“What on earth is that?” asked the BBC reporter.
The incredulous look Reynolds gave the reporter was hilarious. He just could not get it that somebody did not know what that was. “It’s a religious secret,” he finally said.
Since the end of February, I field one question twenty times a day. It’s what’s going to happen next?
I feel as able to give the answer as Albert Reynolds did when facing Larry Downey’s demands.
But unlike the BBC reporter, the situation which seems a bit banal and bizarre in objective terms, seems quite natural. What we are looking at now, essentially, is a “religious secret”.
There are only four options to consider between now and sometime in April when the final call will be made.
We could have a Fine Gael minority government; a Fianna Fáil minority government; a grand coalition between the two big parties – or another election.
The fourth scenario might happen but is the most unlikely. None of the big parties want an election to happen immediately because they sense (rightly) they will make no gains and will probably be punished for doing so.
So let’s look at the other three in a bit of detail to see if we can prise together the pros and cons of each.
Both of the big parties are a good deal short of a majority and, in reality, would need to rely on the other to form a government.
But that does not mean the other party has to support it on every occasion. If the other party were to abstain on key votes (Budgets, no confidence votes etc.) the target suddenly becomes more obtainable.
Since Seán O Fearghaíl’s election as Ceann Comhairle Fianna Fáil has 43 TDs in its block. If the party were to abstain that would mean you subtract 43 from 157 to give you the number of votes in the mix. It would leave 114 which would mean Fine Gael would need to muster 57 votes.
It has 50 at present so would require a further seven locked-in votes. One of those is Michael Lowry’s even though Fine Gael hasn’t asked for it. So it would need at least another six.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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