Political World
Election campaign is still stuck on starting blocks
World of Politics with Harry McGee
For some reason the election campaign has not ignited so far. We are a week away from polling and it’s all a bit like the Prom in November – not much happening; only a few prepared to dip their toes in the water.
Both debates have been interesting in their own ways – but neither set this general election alight. Perhaps that will come with the final four-way debate on Tuesday on RTE. Then again, given the experience of the other two debates I doubt it.
How influential are these televised events? Leaders’ debates live on television are strange animals. It’s good to win but the priority is not to lose. If you make one big gaffe, or get caught out on detail, or flunk on specifics (especially on the economy) the outcome can be catastrophic.
So in a strange way, winning in these debates can sometimes be as simple as surviving.
Enda Kenny lost the 2007 head-to-head with Bertie Ahern in the last half hour of a 90-minute encounter. It came when he stumbled over questions on the economy allowing Ahern in to best him.
Equally Sean Gallagher’s presidential campaign came to a halt in 2011 when he was back-footed badly on a live TV debate.
Ahern won but a little bit by default; in reality this was that Kenny lost.
Yet, during the British general election last year, the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party Nicola Sturgeon emerged as a real star after a virtuoso performance on a crowded platform.
The first two debates were big contrasts in style. The first four-hander on TV3 ended up being interesting but very messy, as the leaders constantly interrupted and talked over each other.
Claire Byrne allowed no such leeway on Monday this week, firmly controlling proceedings from the start and asking robust questions of all the leaders.
I felt that she was not being as assertive with the three leaders from the smaller parties with her line of questioning. But she more than made up for it in the second half when she hit Stephen Donnelly with a haymaker with the gibe he used “management consultant speak” and all his solutions seemed to be about “talking with people”. Richard Boyd Barrett also got a bit of a going over on the question of the fairness of mortgage forgiveness.
Lucinda Creighton was also confident and composed but surprisingly did not attack her opponents as much as the others. She focused almost wholly on setting out Renua’s positions and policies. It was a straight – and effective – pitch at her base although she could have engaged more.
As with TV3 Micheál Martin was possibly marginally the strongest, not least for his combative dogged style and his command of detail.
Enda Kenny again never raised his voice, although he did launch a few attacks on Fianna Fail. Generally he held his own and made no mistakes.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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