Political World
Will Sinn Féin overcome effect of bad publicity?
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
It was the American showman Phineas T Barnum who was supposed to have coined the phrase there’s no such thing as bad publicity.
Anyone following poll data for Sinn Féin in recent months might believe it has a ring to truth in it. No matter what past scandal and outrage has cropped up, the party still seems to be forging ahead.
Last year, Gerry Adams was arrested in connection with the disappearance and murder of Jean McConville over 40 years ago. The arrest happened just before the local elections. The result was a huge bounce in the polls for Sinn Féin.
Then in the autumn, Maíria Cahill came forward with her story about kangaroo trials following her allegations of being raped by an IRA member. What she said was damaging to Adams in particular but there was no evidence Sinn Féin suffered in the polls.
But is Sinn Féin really undamaged by the slew of allegations? Sometimes, reactions in opinion polls lag a little behind the news curve. And sometimes it takes some time for a particular trend to manifest itself.
The language of the Barnum quote is alluring and memorable but it’s not really an iron law of reality.
In the past few months, there have been numerous reminders of the Republican movement’s less savoury side over the past thirty years.
Most Sinn Féin spokespeople – sorry, all Sinn Féin spokespeople – have said that some of the attacks are politically motivated, or are being manipulated for cynical political purposes.
And of course, some are. There is no doubt about it.
But it’s hard to see the point that Sinn Féin is making. It is no slouch itself when it comes to making opportunistic and cynical political attacks on its opponents. Indeed, this is one areas where Irish politics affords equal opportunities to everybody.
When controversies erupt in the political sphere, the initial allegation can seem manageable. The real damage is done, however, when more allegations emerge or when the controversy does not look like reaching its conclusion.
In other words, it gets to a stage where it is not what is written in the headlines that causes political damage but the very fact that the adverse headlines continue.
We often hear the concept of death by a thousand cuts. Charlie Haughey survived a lot of scandals and three heaves against him. In the end what did for him was an old allegation, easily defended, reheated. But it seemed that a tipping point had been reached.
It was the same for Bertie Ahern. The biggest allegation against him, of all this extra money and ‘dig out’ donations, was made in September of 2007 and yet he seemed to weather the storm. But the headlines just kept coming and in the end the accumulation of a lot of small controversies just became too much.
Are we seeing the same thing with Sinn Féin now? Are we going to see the party, and its leader, facing dozens of allegations about the most egregious behaviour of republicans during the height of the Troubles.
This week RTE PrimeTime Investigates did a fine documentary, Above the Law, about punishment shootings and beatings during the conflict.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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