Will Sinn Féin overcome effect of bad publicity?

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

It was the American showman Phineas T Barnum who was supposed to have coined the phrase there’s no such thing as bad publicity.

Anyone following poll data for Sinn Féin in recent months might believe it has a ring to truth in it. No matter what past scandal and outrage has cropped up, the party still seems to be forging ahead.

Last year, Gerry Adams was arrested in connection with the disappearance and murder of Jean McConville over 40 years ago. The arrest happened just before the local elections. The result was a huge bounce in the polls for Sinn Féin.

Then in the autumn, Maíria Cahill came forward with her story about kangaroo trials following her allegations of being raped by an IRA member. What she said was damaging to Adams in particular but there was no evidence Sinn Féin suffered in the polls.

But is Sinn Féin really undamaged by the slew of allegations? Sometimes, reactions in opinion polls lag a little behind the news curve. And sometimes it takes some time for a particular trend to manifest itself.

The language of the Barnum quote is alluring and memorable but it’s not really an iron law of reality.

In the past few months, there have been numerous reminders of the Republican movement’s less savoury side over the past thirty years.

Most Sinn Féin spokespeople – sorry, all Sinn Féin spokespeople – have said that some of the attacks are politically motivated, or are being manipulated for cynical political purposes.

And of course, some are. There is no doubt about it.

But it’s hard to see the point that Sinn Féin is making. It is no slouch itself when it comes to making opportunistic and cynical political attacks on its opponents. Indeed, this is one areas where Irish politics affords equal opportunities to everybody.

When controversies erupt in the political sphere, the initial allegation can seem manageable. The real damage is done, however, when more allegations emerge or when the controversy does not look like reaching its conclusion.

In other words, it gets to a stage where it is not what is written in the headlines that causes political damage but the very fact that the adverse headlines continue.

We often hear the concept of death by a thousand cuts. Charlie Haughey survived a lot of scandals and three heaves against him. In the end what did for him was an old allegation, easily defended, reheated. But it seemed that a tipping point had been reached.

It was the same for Bertie Ahern. The biggest allegation against him, of all this extra money and ‘dig out’ donations, was made in September of 2007 and yet he seemed to weather the storm. But the headlines just kept coming and in the end the accumulation of a lot of small controversies just became too much.

Are we seeing the same thing with Sinn Féin now? Are we going to see the party, and its leader, facing dozens of allegations about the most egregious behaviour of republicans during the height of the Troubles.

This week RTE PrimeTime Investigates did a fine documentary, Above the Law, about punishment shootings and beatings during the conflict.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.