West may provide the litmus test of European elections

World of Politics with Harry McGee

Elections can be the same old ding-dong but they still have the capacity to throw up surprises and upsets. And – even though levels of interest in the European elections seem stupendously low – this time, Midlands North West may provide the one big story.

That is, for a start, the grim prospect of Fianna Fáíl winning zero seats, for the second election running – and the counterweight to that will be Fine Gael pulling off an audacious coup by winning two seats out of four.

How did this sorry state come to pass for Fianna Fáíl? The party is the dominant one in a majority of the 13 counties in the constituency, and, therefore, has support levels far exceeding a quota.

European elections, however, don’t quite work out like that. The party thing just isn’t as important, unless the ‘brand’ is enjoying a moment.

European elections are second tier; so the vote becomes discretionary, a bit like throwing a fiver on a horse in the Galway Hurdle.

People will take a punt on someone because they like the cut of their jib, or they think that person or party has a stance on a particular issue they agree with.

And those issues tend to be the ones that don’t dominate in general elections, where it’s always about the economy, taxes and jobs.

The second big draw is personality. If a person is well known and has a big national profile, their chances of getting elected are much much higher.

There’s a reason why this is particularly so in European elections. The constituencies are vast. Midlands North West extends from Celbridge Co Kildare to Creeslough Co Donegal, and from the Cooley Peninsula as far as Clifden.

Because they don’t feature massively on national media (save for some newspaper features and TV debates in the last week), the rule of thumb is: if you are unknown you are unelectable.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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