The people have spoken – but what did they say?

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

I  think Bill Clinton’s well-minted phrase is very apt in light of what happened this weekend. Speaking about the outcome of the 2000 presidential election involving George W Bush and Al Gore, he said:

“The American people have now spoken, but it’s gonna take a little while to determine exactly what they said.”

There have been times in the past that the mathematics of election outcome have forced unlikely – and until then inconceivable – combinations.

Look at the deals Fianna Fáil did with the Progressive Democrats in 1989 and with the Labour Party in 1992.

But this is a horse of a different colour. With the Dáil reduced to 158 seats, no party is within 25 seats of reaching the magic number of 78. Even if Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin were to completely do the dirt on their solemn electoral vows and try to form a coalition, they would still be over ten seats short of gaining a majority.

And so of course, all attention has now turned to the two large parties. On Saturday evening Fine Gael’s election looked headed for a disastrous with the possibility of it being eclipsed by Fianna Fáil.

The parties finished with only one percentage point of support separating them which is extraordinary. But Fine Gael got a bit of a seat bounce that allowed it increase the gap and creep over 50 seats.

That was largely thanks to the transfers of losing Labour TDs. Sinn Féin also gained seats but disappointed its own expectations. It had some good wins but lost out in some key constituencies.

The loss of Padraig Mac Lochlainn’s seat in Donegal was a terrible blow and the failure of Trevor Ó Clochartaigh’s in Galway West and Paul Donnelly in Dublin West were also surprises.

For the Labour Party it is a disaster and there is no glossing it. Elections are an Old Testament experience for the smaller party and they were well and truly smited. The exact moment it lost this election was February 2011 when it placed the infamous Tesco Ad.

There’s no doubt that Fianna Fáil were the big winners, given where they came from. Sinn Féin has used the genius (and disingenuous) argument that it’s the second worst election in Fianna Fáil history.

Which is true – but the worst was 2011 and to come from there to where it is now is a big big achievement.

The party caught momentum and then some. Its messages on fairness struck a better chord that that of the other parties. Micheál Martin bested his rivals in the key debates and interviews.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.