The final act has yet to be written in this Greek tragedy

The events in Greece over the past few weeks are all too reminiscent of those of late 2010 when Ireland was being drip-fed on emergency liquidity by the European Central Bank and under enormous pressure to accept a bailout.

Think of a steamroller dangling above your head suspended by nothing more than a piece of string.

Except that Greece is already in a programme and the deal it is being forced to accept comes on top of a lot of seriously unpalatable austerity measures it has been forced to implement over the past five or six years.

As I write no deal is in place and the clock is ticking with its trio of international lenders (the Greeks refuse to call them the Troika) giving its government a two-day reprieve.

Meanwhile, the ECB has been meeting on a daily basis to extend emergency aid to its banks. There is a real fear there will be a run on its banks as depositors continue to take money out.

Michael Noonan was among two ministers at the meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers on Monday who reportedly raised the issue for the introduction of capital controls.

Now the Greeks have put a deal on the table which may or may not be accepted at the Thursday summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

The stakes are high; the Government must repay a €1.6 billion loan to the IMF by the end of June.

If it fails to do so, it will have a month in a kind of limbo situation where it will be officially in arrears. But if that is not resolved by the end of July, it will be in default.

The Greek government is reliant on its international lenders for support to repay the loan.

If it fails to satisfy the three institutions it will carry out the meaningful – and very painful – reforms they have demanded, what will follow is… well, to be honest, nobody knows.

The EU has been saying for a long time now that unlike the crisis in 2008 and 2009 it can sustain a big shock like a country leaving the euro or defaulting on its loan. You still wonder.

A Grexit will mean that a lot of Europe’s bigger countries and banks will be left on the hook with unpaid debt.

The knock-on effect, economically and politically, for such a seismic shock is just impossible to predict. Sure, the EU might be able to withstand it. But there are no guarantees.

As for the impact it will have on the Greek people; it’s not going to be good. It’s clear enough from experts to whom I have spoken the Greeks have put forward economic arguments that don’t stack up and have not been backed up by evidence.

But politically the Syriza government led by Alexis Tsipras has been as combative as they come. For months now it has been one against 18 others in the eurozone and equally one against everybody else in the eurogroup.

You have to admire its resolve and its willingness to indulge in brinkmanship – politically if no other way.

Sinn Féin hitched its wagon to Syriza early on and might regret it close to the next general election.

Gerry Adams said his party would not have capitulated to the will of the Troika but would have slugged it out through as many sleepless nights necessary to get an acceptable deal. We are seeing that strategy in action now.

It’s not true that Brian Cowen’s or Enda Kenny’s governments rolled over when Jean Claude Trichet said ‘non’. But they certainly did not a never-ending Lough Derg out of it.

So what will be the outcome?

For more see page 45 in this week’s Connacht Tribune, download the Digital Edition here or get the Connacht Tribune app from iTunes or Google Play

Harry McGee is political correspondent of The Irish Times; you can contact him via twitter: @harrymcgee