Staying or going – what’s on the cards for party leaders?

World of Politics with Harry McGee

If you had asked me at the start of the year to name the party leaders most likely to topple in 2022, the last two names on the list were Mary Lou McDonald and Alan Kelly. The Tipperary TD was not a perfect leader for the Labour Party – he was a rough diamond with a reputation for a sledgehammer approach to issues: hence the nickname AK47; a reference to a semi-automatic rifle used during the Troubles.

Kelly had been the leader of his party for less than two years. He had taken over the party when it was at a very low ebb and even though the poll figures were low, the party had received a huge fillip when Ivana Bacik won the Dublin Bay South by-election.

Kelly’s manner and the way he dealt with people was a known issue. And there were those in the Labour parliamentary party who detested him. There was no scandal or cock-up or misjudgement that pushed him out. It was a coup, simple as.

A meeting was arranged for the parliamentary party to which he was not invited. He was pushed out by colleagues who never had confidence in him, joined by colleagues who once had confidence in him but had lost confidence in his leadership.

And so the person I thought might last the longest was the first to go, replaced by Ivana Bacik, the by-election winner. She hasn’t exactly set the world on fire as yet but she will need time to prove herself – if her colleagues can give her a little time before wielding the axe!

As for Mary Lou, she will not last as long as Gerry Adams, but she will be leader for at least another Dáil term after this – if Sinn Féin goes into government.

The person I thought would go first was Micheál Martin. But there is no sign of that happening anytime soon.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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