Presidential Referendum really just a red herring

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

It is almost certain that three referendums that have been proposed by this Government during its term of office will have been rejected by the people.

They were the proposal to give parliamentary inquiries more power; the plan to abolish the Seanad; and the silly referendum on reducing the eligible age of a Presidential candidate from 35 to 21 (with everything else going on in the world, they could surely have thought of something less, well, trivial).

The question is – will the people reject a fourth referendum, namely the referendum on same-sex marriage this weekend.

At this stage the evidence and data suggests not. The gap looks a little too wide. That said, there have been dramatic swings in the last week of a lot of election and referendum campaigns that opinion polls have not picked up. In addition to that, opinion polls get things wrong.

A really good example of a late intervention was when five or six former Attorneys General wrote a letter expressing their concern at the powers that parliamentarians would have if the inquiries referendum were to pass.

The stock of politicians was on the floor at the time. The public took note of the concerns and were damned if they were going to give any more powers to those untrustworthy TDs and Senators.

The rule of thumb is that a closer to polling day an opinion poll is taken, the more accurate it is. For example, last December, 80 per cent of people polled said they supported same-sex marriage.

That figure had to be taken with a large grain of salt. For one, a lot of those asked had not really thought about it and gave an answer that was almost arbitrary, or answered what they thought might be the ‘right’ answer without even thinking about it.

Closer to polling day, when they have thought about it, their voting intention might very well change. So the polls are usually not too far wrong.

But often they fail to pick up late swings. Opinion polls also fail to pick up what are known as ‘shy voters’ – those who vote for an issue or for a party but won’t admit it publicly.

In addition to that, far more people tell pollsters they will vote than actually do. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Many of those who say they will vote don’t turn up, especially for second-tier elections.

One of the fears of Yes campaigners in the same-sex referendum is that the young won’t vote – especially the youngest 18-24 age group.

That group is the strongest supporter of a Yes vote (with 71 per cent in favour). Yet it is also the group that votes in the lowest percentage.

By contrast, the age group that is most strongly opposed to change is the over 65 age group, where only 34 per cent is in favour. Unlike their young counterparts, this group tends to vote in large numbers.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.