Predictions can see you hoisted by your political petard

World of Politics with Harry McGee

The celebrated political editor of The Irish Independent Chris Glennon was once challenged on a prediction that he had seemingly called wrong. “It was right at the time,” was his classic reply.

The statement could serve as a motto for political scribblers everywhere. A lot of the time they are asked to look at the set of facts in front of them and then make a prediction of what will happen.

There are a number of reasons why this is problematic.

The first is that many of their sources are as unreliable as themselves (and some – shock, horror – even tell porkies)!

Secondly dealing with politics is like trying to hold water in your hands – it all escapes from you so quickly and most of what you think you have will inevitably disappear.

Thirdly journalists have many skills but clairvoyance isn’t one of them.

And fourthly, despite their hard-bitten world-weary image, most journalists are incredibly naïve and gullible.

There is an old religious saying that Graham Green used brilliantly in his novel: Brighton Rock: “Between the saddle and the ground, he something lost and something found.”

For me, this week it’s a little bit like that, even though there is no death, and probably no revelation of faith to be found.

But the column is being written before the Cabinet reshuffle has been made. And it will appear after the Cabinet reshuffle has been made.

So, understandably, I’m a tad reluctant to start making predictions now that will make me look very silly indeed at the end of the week.

My most famous moment in making a bum prediction occurred in 2005.

Ivor Callely got the order of the boot as a junior Minister (on Budget Day as it happened) after it was disclosed he had got a construction company to paint his house for free.

On the day that then-Taoiseach Bertie Ahern was due to announce Callely’s replacement, I was invited onto the News at One – then hosted by Sean O’Rourke – to sheer my extensive wisdom and expertise and inside intelligence with the listeners.

Now being on with O’Rourke is always a big deal and you will make sure you will do all your homework assiduously.

I knew that he’d press me on a name and I wanted to be as sure of my selection as I was that Tipperary would have the beating of Galway last Saturday.

So I asked high and low and even badgered those closed to the Bert to get the intelligence out of them.

And the consensus was – and I duly repeated it to the nation – was that Sean Haughey would get the nod.

So on I went to News at One and blithely announced that the job had gone to Haughey.

Half an hour later, The Bert stood up in the Dáil and revealed the new junior minister as… Mary Wallace.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.