Polls provide reality check for Fine Gael’s third term hopes

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

There’s nothing quite like an opinion poll to kick-start an election campaign – not that this one was moribund, but the first Irish Times survey on Monday certainly injected a new urgency into the next two and a half weeks.

It saw a big slide for Fine Gael, a massive surge for Sinn Féin – and steady as she goes for Fianna Fáil.

The key findings showed Fianna Fáil at 25 per cent (no change), 23 per cent for Fine Gael (down six), 21 per cent for Sinn Féin (up seven), 5 per cent for Labour (down one), eight per cent for the Green Party (no change) and 18 per cent for Independents and small parties (no change). The comparison is with the most recent Irish Times poll last October.

Fine Gael had no way to put a gloss on this; a six point drop is significant and suggests the party does not have momentum at the start of the campaign.

Judged in isolation, Fianna Fáil is treading water but the fact that it is edging in front of Fine Gael at the start of the campaign is significant – and Leo Varadkar must know that it’s very difficult to be returned for a third time.

The TV debates will now play a crucial part. I have no doubt that Fine Fine Gael agreed to the live TV debate on Wednesday on Virgin Media because it knew it was lagging behind and needed to regain momentum… and quick.

It’s a remarkable surge for Sinn Féin. The party had a terrible local election and lost a raft of seats. However, it did perform well in a number of key constituencies.

It must not be forgotten that it had a spate of resignations, and bullying claims, at local level and they might have reflected in the local elections, but do not seem to have carried on as a factor the national picture.

The November by-elections helped steady the ship for it. On this showing Sinn Féin will be recalibrating the number of seats they are capable of holding in the election.

There is a caveat. If you look at the pattern of the 2016 election, the party started off at 19 per cent in the first Irish Times poll and ended up with 13.8 per cent.

The challenge for the party this time will be consolidating the vote and ensure less slippage. It attracts a vote from younger voters and working class voters that don’t turn out in huge numbers.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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