Politics remains hamstrung through short-term vision

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

Politics is a strange old business – reporting on it is even stranger. I have been a member of the NUI Galway Udarás for two years. One of the things that struck me was that it is already strategically planning for the middle of the century and the end of the century.

Not just vague plans; proper planning to ensure that it will have the facilities and space and expertise.

That runs so counter to everything I know about the world of politics. The distant future in politics is the next election. Everything is so bound up with short-term gains and with the election cycle that long-term planning is almost non-existent.

A 20-year strategy is an excuse to kick an issue into touch. Because if you do nothing in the short-term, you can always defend that by saying things will come together at a later stage.

The problem is that elections take place and new governments are elected. The issue is not a priority for them. So the strategy is left to wither on the vine.

The 20-year strategy on the Irish language is the best example.

It was launched by the previous government in 2010. By the time it reaches its conclusion, it will be woefully unfinished, with none of its lofty targets met. By that time, Irish will be on its last legs as a living first language.

Political reporting is a little unreal too. A lot of the time you are not dealing with tangibles. You are comparing promises, pledges that might or might not materialise, and policies that might or might not succeed.

In other words you end up being a bit of a futurologists. Is the Budget announced today a good one? Would Leo Varadkar make a good Minister for Finance? Will Universal Health Insurance really work? Can Irish Water overcome the crisis?

The honest answer to all of the above is: “I don’t have a clue and neither does anybody else.”

Certainly, you have a skill set. You can use your knowledge of the policy or personality, of past behaviour, of the prevailing circumstances now.

They can allow you make an informed guess. But it’s still a punt at the end of the day. And despite your Socrates-like powers, you are often as right as you are wrong.

It’s for that reason that most political commentators resort to the cliché: “As for that happening, it remains to be seen.”

I’m not above it, or immune to it myself. Most of my reporting life is about making predictions of one kind or another.

Some I have got right – the Seanad referendum; the big majority in the same sex referendum; the date of the next election; the disaster coming down the tracks of the previous government; Enda Kenny’s success in the leadership battle five years ago.

Others I have got wrong. I predicted Fianna Fáil would come back stronger than they have. They are mired.