Politicians unable to crack people’s code

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

Whenever a new government is formed it will be our equivalent of Dagen H. That was the day in 1967 that Sweden decided to switch from driving on the left hand side of the road to the right. What ensued was temporary chaos and confusion. After a while this strange new arrangement began to become normalised.

It is over one month since the country voted in the General Election. Now, the pathway to government formation looks as uncertain as it did when the results first came in. When the people spoke they did so in a coded language that no politician has yet been able to crack.

It’s not yet the longest period between election and Government that has been seen in the State. After the general election in November 1992 it took 42 days to form a Government. There was no difficulty with actual numbers back then: it was more to do with existential matters.  Fianna Fáil and Labour had separately to absorb a fundamental sea-change in core direction.

This time both problems exist, existential and numbers. And they are writ large.  There is a slim chance a government will be in place on April 6th when the Dáil returns for a second time to vote on nominations for Taoiseach. But given the piecemeal progress in discussions so far, it still looks more likely that it will be mid April before a new government is through the gap.

The most likely scenario emerging is a minority government led by Enda Kenny. But if that is the case, it will be a very different type of administration to  any that has been seen before. It

The enormity of the task was borne home last week when Fine Gael stated its first major move with a day-long session involving its negotiators and 15 Independent and two Green Party TDs. With advisers and officials there were over 50 people packed into a room in Government buildings for over six hours.

Fine Gael’s approach marked a big departure from previous discussions on government formation. For one, Fine Gael made a decision it would produce no document setting out where it stands. This is highly unusual as a document is always seen as the foundation block of any negotiations. In 1992, Fianna Fáil adviser Martin Mansergh scoured the Labour manifesto looking for points of agreement and produced a document that chimed with Dick Spring’s policy objectives.

If you go back to the foundation of the State, the Treaty was based on a document written by the British prime minister David Lloyd George. The advantage of having a document is that even though amendments are sure to be made, it is your document. Therefore, its central principles are likely to survive even the tensest of talks.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.