Number of TDs in next Dáil to increase in boundary review

Bradley Bytes – a sort of political column with Dara Bradley

A major shake-up of Dáil Éireann is on the cards to reflect population changes since the last Census.

And it means that Galway could be in line for another Teachta Dála, or a re-jig of its constituency boundaries, or both.

There hasn’t been a Census since 2016, and one is due to take place in 2022. But, according to population estimates issued by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) earlier this year, there are currently more than five million people living in Ireland.

Galway West TD, Éamon Ó Cuív (FF), reckons that in order to comply with the Constitution, “the absolute minimum” number of TDs needed after the Census is completed “will be 167”.

Currently, there are 160. But Dev Óg – a bit of an anorak when it comes to boundary reviews – says “the number of TDs could increase by seven or even more than that to allow for the rapidly and continuously growing population”.

An electoral boundary review will have to take place after the Census is completed. That review will reflect the changes in population trends.

The former Minister believes that after the review, there will be a “significant increase in the number of Dáil Deputies in the next Dáil”.

This, he says, “could have a significant impact on the outline of Dáil constituencies, particularly in and around urban areas such as Galway.

“We also don’t know what effect Covid will have on stabilising and growing rural populations”, he says.

Dev Óg isn’t one for speculation about the make-up of constituencies, post-review. But it’s worth considering the impacts that population changes might have on Dáil representation here in Galway.

In any review, the boundary commission would look firstly at Donegal, which is a five-seater. If population trends allow, that could go to two three-seaters and then there is a domino effect the whole way down the Western seaboard.

Do you put Roscommon and Leitrim back together? What will happen to Mayo – it went from six TDs (two three-seaters) twenty years ago to five to four, but it had too high a population for four seats and so South Mayo was moved into Galway West.

Galway West – which has five seats and includes the city – cannot go to a six-seater, but it could shed areas like South Mayo.

However, Covid-19, which has resulted in some inward migration to rural areas due to Working From Home practices, might mean that the population of Mayo has stabilised and so South Mayo cannot go back.

That would mean a major reconfiguration of the constituencies within the County of Galway. Could Galway West shed Oranmore, for example, and what impact would that have on Galway East? And what impact would that have on Galway/Roscommon, which takes in areas around Ballinasloe?

Could Galway West be split into two three-seaters and Galway East and Roscommon Galway reconfigured to create three three-seat constituencies in County Galway, leaving out Roscommon and South Mayo?

The only certainty is that due to population growth, there won’t be a decrease in the number of TDs representing Galway.

(Photo: Éamon Ó Cuív: a bit of an anorak when it comes to boundary reviews).

This is a shortened preview version of Bradley Bytes. To read more, see this week’s Galway City Tribune. You can buy a digital edition HERE.