New Taoiseach has to rescue the country – and Fianna Fáil

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

New governments almost always step into the unknown – but the permutations have rarely been as polarized as they are for the three components in Ireland’s new regime, as they approach the end of their first week in office.

At one end of the spectrum, we could be in for the mother of all recessions – only this time one affecting everybody. We might need another bailout – only this time there might not be anybody willing to give it to us, or we will have to join a very long queue.

An infinitely more optimistic assessment could see Ireland exiting from the worst of the Covid-19 downturn by the end of the year, leaving the State with a challenge – but an achievable one.

In that scenario, by the end of 2021, we might be on a steep upward trajectory again. That would obviously also depend on Covid-19 not producing a big second wave – or alternatively a vaccine being found.

Truth is the reality probably lies somewhere between those two extremes.

The coming months should tell a lot about where coronavirus is at, and how countries are beginning to recover.

But history shows we have had such outbreaks before, and the world has managed to bounce back. The difference this time is that modern travel has made it all happen so much quicker and across a much wider area – and possibly cutting much deeper as well.

By the time it has made its way through Africa, the Middle East and South America will Covid-19 have claimed as many lives as the 50 million killed by the Spanish flu?

And now we have a new Government; an unusual new Government in keeping with a very unusual period in our history.

Micheál Martin has been waiting a long time to become Taoiseach. He certainly felt it could have happened in different circumstances, as a rotating Taoiseach in a coalition that was unimaginable up until the last decade – a merging of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The irony is that moment of triumph for Martin might also be the moment of the end for Fianna Fáil.

He inherited the party at its lowest ever ebb – having taken a drubbing for its responsibility in losing Ireland its sovereignty.

He seemed to be taking the party back on an upward trajectory with solid elections in 2016 (general) and again in the 2019 locals.

But the great catch-all party of de Valera and Lemass and Haughey and Ahern could no longer catch all.

 For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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