Myth-busting about parties, independents and whips

It’s amazing the myths that still persist about politics.

For one, the notion that Irish politics is still dominated by the big two parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and therefore they need to somehow coalesce if we are to get anywhere.

It’s nearly 40 years now since we have had a majority single party government. Every administration since then has either been a minority or a coalition.

Indeed, given our electoral system, coalitions are now a way of life.

By the ’70s, the political attachments forged out of the civil war were on the wane. Sure, there are always families for whom fealty to a political party will be in their DNA. The respective positions of party on the “national question” will also be a factor for some.

But for most born from the 1960s onwards, there were two over-riding factors. The first was that party loyalty was not set in stone. The second was that votes were cast pragmatically in favour the party that was considered the best to govern the country.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both been in long-term decline.

For Fianna Fáil, its status as the natural party of government masked that decline during the good years, when floating voters continued to back it. When the fall came, it hurled the party down to the floor. It will come back, but below the support levels it would have expected.

Fine Gael will manage to keep its head above the water and will, in the short-term, stay ahead of its traditional rival in the battle to be the biggest.

Ironically, for both parties to remain strong, they need the other to be strong, but not as strong as it is. It’s a bit like Gaelic Games having vintage years when the two traditional powerhouses, Kerry and Dublin, are strong.

Another myth revolves around Independents. A whole narrative has grown up over the past couple of years that more or less claims that they have come from nowhere and are now a real force in Irish politics.

In the first instance, a lot of this is based on opinion polls – and mid-season ones at that. They tell you not very much. And what they do tell you, they say it in the crudest way.

For example, there will always be blowback for governments in the mid-term. They have either introduced unpopular measures or have raised taxes or charges.

Polls (as well as by-elections and second-tier elections such as locals) give the electorate the chance to exercise their displeasure.

People tend to think more intensely about casting their vote when it comes to a General Election. There are loads of reasons why somebody would support a political party (somebody would feel very strongly about the Irish language or climate change or social policies, for example).

But for most people they want a back a Captain who is not going to steer the ship of State onto the rocks, who will ensure they can get jobs, keep their jobs, get services, not pay over onerous taxes. Some will be lured by big promises – most will be wise to empty ones.

For more of Harry McGee’s myth-busting see this week’s Tribune.