Martin and Fianna Fáil face uncertain future

World of Politics with Harry McGee  – harrymcgee@gmail.com

The big loser of the election could turn out to be the winner. Micheál Martin had a poor election. His party lost seats instead of gaining them, and he himself unspooled his reputation as a good head-to-head debater with mediocre performances during the televised events. And yet, he still could end up as Taoiseach.

His campaign does not make for pretty reading. He was bested by Mary Lou McDonald in the first leaders’ debate and, after that, the pattern was already set.

The seeds of the failure went back way before the campaign. It was his decision to extend the confidence and supply arrangement for a year. Already unpopular with its members, there is clear evidence from the polls that confidence and supply was regarded by the electorate as Fianna Fáil being in coalition with Fine Gael.

And now both parties look like they may formalise that arrangement by actually going into a grand coalition. And while that may make Martin a short-term winner (well, kind of, he will have to share the Taoiseach position), he could be making his party the long-time loser in all of this, by ceding its status as the largest Republican party to Sinn Féin.

If that happens, it could be permanent and Sinn Féin will have done what it did in the North, by making Fianna Fáil the SDLP of Irish politics.

We should be wary of making any predictions, especially after this general election when just about everybody misinterpreted what change meant. It meant all were wrong on Sinn Féin.

So the working assumption now that the party is on a linear upward projection should be closely scrutinised. It so lacked candidates in the general election, that some of its new TDs are suboptimal and have never really been tested, not alone at a national level, but even at a local level.

The party’s central organisation is tight and it will rely on the handful of really excellent TDs it has from McDonald to Pearse Doherty and Eoin Ó Broin. The likes of Mairéad Farrell and Claire Kerrane are bright prospects and will rise quickly.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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