Long term forecasts need to be treated with caution

Country Living with Francis Farragher

Much as we like at times to take a bit of a swipe at the big players in the weather forecast business such as Met. Éireann and the UK Met. Office, we are probably far better off to stick with the old reliables in terms of accessing data that’s more real than gimmicky.

If for example you had to engage on a long road journey during hazardous weather conditions or a fishing expedition at sea, would you rely on the predictions of some weather quack or the scientifically based forecast of the Met. Office. The answer to that one is pretty obvious.

Although they mightn’t get it right all the time, in the vast majority of cases, the reputable forecasts do give a fairly accurate guide to weather for about five days in advance. From five to 10 days on, some forecasters will give an outline of the charts but the accuracy declines significantly over that extended period.

Then of course, there’s the tranche of quacks, chancers and of course journalists – many of the latter unable to resist the temptation to go with a headline such as: ‘Temperatures to drop to -21° this Winter’.

We all tend to remember such headlines when they appear but here and there it can be an informative exercise to keep a little record of those long term predictions, and see how they actually work out.

Last September for example, the Daily Express carried a major story on the arrival of bitterly cold weather to our shores by October and into early November.

One paragraph from the report stated that: “The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt . . .  Britain is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill.”

In the report, a spokesman for the Exacta Weather Forecasting Service, was quoted as saying: “October is likely to see a real chill at times in terms of temperatures due to below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a virtually non-existent Gulf Stream.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.