Lessons to be learned here from UK election

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

There are a number of messages from the British election for Irish political parties and movements to take away and digest before our next encounter with the polling booth.

The scale of the Tory victory was stunning – but it must be remembered that that was a symptom of the first-past-the-post system there. The Conservatives got 37.5 per cent of the vote, which was impressive. But it had the PRSTV (proportional representation, single transferrable vote) system we have in Ireland, it might not have secured a majority.

Indeed, Fine Gael’s vote was in that region in 2011 and it was still shy of an overall majority.

But still, Fine Gael strategists might be thinking that if it boxes clever the election might be there for the taking, if they are prepared to make Labour the sacrificial lambs.

There was a very good analysis piece in the Sunday Times this week that disclosed that the Conservatives had deliberately targeted Liberal Democrat seats, even though it was the junior party in coalition.

Therefore the relationship was a little like that of the fox and the gingerbread man, in which after apparent cooperation, the fox gobbled up its unsuspecting passenger.

If Labour was to lose a rake of seats in the general election, who would stand most to benefit? Strangely, it could be Fine Gael in some constituencies rather than Fianna Fail or left-wing parties (especially in more affluent and liberal constituencies).

There has been a lot of talk that Fine Gael might cut loose and hold an early election, soon after the Budget in October. The received wisdom is that Labour needs all the time it can to regather its strength. An early election would not be in its interests.

I don’t believe there will be an early election. This Government will serve its full term. Enda Kenny and Joan Burton have struck up a strong relationship and the trust levels are high. At this remove, that kind of chicanery does not seem likely.

Another obvious factor was that opinion polls got it badly wrong in Britain. It must be remembered the margin of error is plus or minus three per cent. Thus, a party polling on ten per cent could conceivably be attracting 13 per cent of the vote – or as little as seven per cent.

In addition, it is a sample of 100 per cent of the population; whereas the turnout is often lower (66 per cent in the British elections). Pollsters use various measures to try and provide for this (by excluding ‘don’t knows’ for example). But many of those who tell pollsters they will vote (younger people for example) won’t live up to their intentions.

Most British polls had the two main parties neck-and-neck whereas there was a seven-points difference between them in the election (37.5 per cent to 30.5 per cent). Both results were marginally outside the margin for error.

What implications does it have for Ireland? Well, obviously the media (and political parties) lay great store behind opinion polls. But it is often forgotten how blunt a measuring instrument they often are, and have spectacularly got it wrong in the past.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.