Labour’s audacious dream – to bring off the ‘impossible treble’ in Galway!

Date Published: {J}

It’s the ‘impossible’ treble – but Labour, in light of their very strong position in the opinion polls, are prepared to dream: Michael D. Higgins to win the Presidency, Labour to hold his Dail seat in Galway West, and Colm Keaveney to win a Dail seat in Galway East.

Okay, it’s a real long-shot, but Labour have been months on the crest of a wave of support, according to the opinion polls. Wonder what odds Galway Fine Gael bookie John Mulholland (The Better Bettor) would give on that treble?

Labour Leader Eamon Gilmore went on the record at the weekend as hinting that one of them – a shock Dail seat win in in his native Galway East – is not being ruled out. He says it’s the kind of seat they want to win.

Speaking after the special meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party in the Abbey Hotel, Roscommon, Gilmore told The Deputy: “Galway East will be a crucial constituency for Labour in the next election. This the sort of constituency in which we must make gains if we are to succeed in our objective of increasing the number of Labour TDs West of the Shannon and securing sufficient seats to be the biggest party in the next government.

“We have a very able and energetic councillor in Colm Keaveney and I expect that in, due course, he will be joined on the ticket by a second candidate from the southern part of the constituency,” he added.

The speculation in some Labour circles is that Keaveney – who got 2,500 first preferences in the Tuam area in the Local Elections last year – will be joined on the Labour ticket by Independent Councillor Tim Broderick (Ballinasloe), who got 1,500 first preferences in the Locals.

They have a hell of a challenge in front of them because this is what Fianna Fail used to love to call its ‘heartland’ – two elections ago FF took three-seats-out-of-four in the area (Noel Treacy TD, Micheal Kitt TD and Joe Callanan TD), but in 2007, Callanan lost his seat and Fine Gael took two, with both Paul Connaughton and Ulick Burke getting into the Dail.

The year 2007 showed that the Fianna Fail vote was ‘on the slide’ in Galway East, with a drop of more than seven per cent in the first preferences. That trend was confirmed by a disastrous Local Elections result in Galway East in 2009, but Micheal Kitt and Noel Treacy still had 39 per cent of the first preferences at the last General Election – within a vulgar fraction of the two quotas needed.

Recent Labour analysis of national opinion polls, and extensive canvassing already done by Keaveney and his team, are what’s giving Labour hope that a shock might be on the cards.

The task is huge. Not alone do they have to take out one of the long-serving Fianna Fail TDs Mick Kitt or Noel Treacy, they also have to contend with a hugely strong FG team of Connaughton TD, Burke TD, Senator Ciaran Cannon and Councillor Tom McHugh, who are aiming at electing not just the two outgoing TDs, but three, according to some FG schemers.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.