Kelly caught between the devil and the deep blue sea

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

Alan Kelly finds himself in a classic Catch 22 situation – he wants to run in the Labour leadership contest but cannot.

He is the only one of the seven surviving TDs who really wants the leadership and has the fire in his belly – but his problem is that none of the other six particularly want him to be the leader.

The other main contender, Brendan Howlin, has had to be cajoled and does not seem to want job that badly – but he will take it to prevent the other guy from getting it.

Alan Kelly’s big problem is that he might have difficulty finding a seconder. With no seconder he can’t stand.

The possibility he might command more support among the party’s wider membership becomes irrelevant. If he can’t get off the base, it’s a strike out and there’s no point in talking about home runs.

Kelly has made a few barnstorming speeches in the past few weeks and has clearly appealed over the heads of his Dáil colleagues to the wider membership.

And if the contest went to the wider membership it is likely that the younger, brasher, hungrier Kelly would get it. He has made a hames of a number of his policy items. He over-promised on what he could deliver on housing. He did not have a great innings as director of elections for Labour in the general election. But no matter what magic he could have spun, he was dealt a dud hand there; Labour was always on a big loser.

The party has until Friday to make up its mind. At the time of writing it seemed none of the other six were willing to give Kelly a seconder.

All seemed to be holding and ground; prepared to take a short-term hit for not allowing Kelly to run.

The instincts might tell one or two that they should second him even though they don’t support him, in the interests of giving him a chance and opening to the question to the wider membership.

But look at what happened when British Labour MPs who were not supporters of Jeremy Corbyn signed his nomination papers to allow him into the race. They never expected him to win – and then he did, for better or for worse.

Ditto with Kelly; he really divides opinion. Some think he is the only one with the energy and capability to recover the party’s fortunes. Others think he will drive it into ruin.

It creates a problem for Labour and one that is not unfamiliar to the left in Irish politics.

The smaller a left-wing party is, the more likely a split.

As the Labour Party ship quickly sunk in the February election, at least the orchestra played in unison (if dominated by wailing violins).

But as soon as the seven survivors clambered onto the life-raft any patina of unity has vanished and they started bickering and rowing with each other.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.