Keeping a weather eye on summer political climate

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

There’s a postman in Donegal and there is some other dude in New Zealand who purport to be expert in predicting the weather. From time to time we hear claims that their forecasts are more accurate than the meteorologists.

It’s not exactly as they are taking on an all-knowing entity.

Weather forecasts are tricky, especially for an island nation in the North Atlantic.

As far as I can discern the term ‘sunny spells and scattered showers’ encompasses both the possibility of a hurricane and a drought.

And so let’s segue over to politics and the gnarled question of opinion polls. What do they tell us? Well, a little bit like a weather forecast they set out a likely scenario but if you were to swear your life on it, would you rely on it? Ahem, the answer to that has to be No.

Remember, in the summer of 2010 the opinion polls were showing Labour support at over 30 per cent and we saw the ill-advised poster campaign with the logo “Gilmore for Taoiseach”. Oops, that wasn’t a very clever strategic move.

Labour did splendidly in the end and won more seats than ever before but on far more modest support levels of about 19.5 per cent. That was a full 13 per cent shy of its opinion poll ratings from just eight months beforehand.

Of course, politics is a tide that is constantly rising and receding. Fortunes ebb and flow – events determine successes and failures. But a 13 per cent swing in the course of eight months shows that ‘caveat emptor’ nature of polls

How accurate are the polls that are being churned out at the rate of one or two a month at the moment? My answer – not very accurate.

For one, there are seasonal factors. Government parties tend to do better immediately after the summer break. The reason is simple. Politics is on holidays and there have been no controversies so the levels of ire are lower… for the moment!

In addition, I know full well from being a human being that despite my best efforts  at boring them into submission that most people are not all that interested in politics for most of the time.

The only time a majority does become interested is when there is a massive issue or controversy or when there is a general election. So a fair chunk of people who are polled in non-election periods have not really thought about politics or about how they vote. They give an opinion off the top of their head that they have not really committed to. When the time comes to cast an actual vote their frame of mind is completely different.

A party or cause can be fashionable or there may be a degree of cynicism. But those are never enough to sway a vote in a polling booth.

Look at those tempting Labour figures, or the good will the Green Party was getting on its climate change stance during the good years or the current vogue of independence and ‘none of the above’.

Will those support levels be sustained? In one word, nah.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.