Hard to separate big guns – but small parties hold the key

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

AS unpalatable as some will find an election in early February, the reality is that all of the choices Leo Varadkar still possessed were fully spent by the time it came to early January. The chances of making it to May fell on simple arithmetic.

Since Dara Murphy’s departure, Fine Gael’s strength had been reduced to 47 TDs. With the Independence Alliance’s four TDs, and two Independent Deputies, Katherine Zappone and Sean Canney, that brought the numbers to 53.

If Fianna Fáil’s 44 Deputies all abstained that brought the number to 98. Ceann Comhairle Sean Ó Fearghaíl bought the number to 99.

At present there are 157 Deputies in Leinster House. There were three Independent TDs who supported the Government in crucial votes – Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish and Denis Naughten. That brought its strength to 56. And the combined opposition strength was then 55. That is how tight it was.

However, even that was not certain. The Government could no longer rely on Grealish or Naughten for every vote. Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness, an awkward and negative politician, was threatening to vote against the Government in a no confidence vote.

Even if the Coalition survived a vote of no confidence in Simon Harris on February 5, the Dáil would be reduced to a parliamentary farce between now and Easter as Opposition parties and groups tabled as many no confidence motions as possible.

And so the writing was on the wall – and now that the starting gun has sounded, people will be thinking about policies and priorities and what parties or personalities closest to their own world view.

Fine Gael has been marginally ahead in most opinion polls for the past year but that means little. It’s only if one of the big parties opens a large gap, of if there is a measurable surge from a smaller party, that we sit up and taken notice.

What distinguished Ireland from other countries is our multi-seat constituencies and our transferable votes. That means a more even spread for parties but will always make it difficult for any one party, or small combination of parties, to form a government.

There will be 160 TDs in the new Dáíl, an increase of two, and one less constituency, with Laois and Offaly combined into one five-seater.

I’ve done a preliminary pass of all 39 constituencies and my initial calculation is it’s going to be very tight between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with only one seat between them.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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