Government ploughs on for new term with no prospect of election

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

The Dáil has returned this week after the kind of summer break the rest of us had when we were wearing short trousers – secure in the knowledge that there is little prospect of a general election in the near future.

That said, Fine Gael must have toyed with the idea, after the latest opinion poll in the Sunday Business Post last weekend put them eleven points ahead of Fianna Fáil.

Leo Varadkar’s dilemma is how to call an election without being blamed for stopping the Government in its tracks – especially if voters are not happy about an early election.

Some think that his letter to Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin looking for a two-year extension of the Confidence and Supply agreement was designed to be so demanding and over-the-top that it essentially provided the right conditions for calling an election within six months of the Budget and then blaming the other side for not being willing to continue the buddy system.

Fianna Fáil don’t want an election, and nor do Sinn Féin – or the smaller parties for that matter, with the exception perhaps of Solidarity-People Before Profit.

In an ideal world, all would be hoping that the local elections in June 2019 were held first, to allow them blood new candidates and get status and name recognition for their new Dáil candidates.

But there is still a heightened sense of tension among TDs given the headaches over housing and health.

Overarching those are three looming events that will dominate the autumn session – Brexit; the October budget; and the end of the confidence-and-supply agreement.

Paschal Donohoe’s second budget comes on the back of a steady economy and very low unemployment figures.

As such he has some scope for manoeuvre but has been very careful during the summer months to dampen expectations on spending. The budget will allow him up to €3.4 billion but already some €2.6 billion of that has already been committed, leaving him spending room of €800 million.

With all the demands and the ravenous appetite of the health sector for public money, he will need to pull some rabbit out of the hat to keep everybody happy.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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