Government must learn to embrace new political era

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

Of course the first question is how long this government will last – and at first glance, it might look a little dodgy. For Fine Gael and a motley crew of Independents the numbers are marginal – and just one or two defections could put paid to it.

The obvious comparison is a Fine Gael-led government in the early 1980s that fell when Independent Socialist Jim Kemmy pulled his support over a Budget.

But I have said for a while now that I believe that both the government and Taoiseach Enda Kenny will last longer than a lot of people think.

It’s a minority government that’s 20 seats short of a majority and will have to rely on the biggest opposition party (Fianna Fáil) to abstain on the crucial confidence and supply (financial votes).

It means it’s going to lose Dáil votes – lots of them. In 1987, the minority Fianna Fáíl government lost nine private members Bill. Even though that none of them threatened the tenability of the government, Charlie Haughey got so exasperated with them that he called an early election. It backfired on him.

So the Coalition will have to get used to losing Dáíl votes (and Seanad ones) and remain sanguine about it all. There is also the real possibility that legislation brought by Opposition parties will be passed by the Dáil despite Government opposition. That would depend on the support of Sinn Féin.

It will be interesting to see how nuanced it will approach the business of opposition. I think that all-out opposition won’t work even though that’s what it’s far left rival, the AAAPBP, will be doing.

The tortuous negotiations and agreements with Fianna Fail and the Independents were designed to avoid a roller-coaster ride on issues that could potentially fell the government. Indeed if you look at the proposed 160-page programme for government, you will see that Independents who become part of government will be locked in to the notion of collective responsibility (and that becomes collective support).

That will be reinforced by the fact that all the Independents who signed up to support the government have become Ministers, with the exception of Michael Harty in Clare.

In essence, they will be forced to respect Cabinet responsibility.

The Independent Alliance, in particular, made a lot of play about being whipless wonders. But that freedom is greatly modified in the Programme for Government. While recognising the less formal nature of the groping, the programme states: “A balance has to be struck between the coherence of Government and its capacity to implement policy, and the openness of all voices to be heard.”

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.