Galway West poll puts cat among the pigeons!

The General Election race for five seats in Galway West was blown wide-open this week with the publication of a shock opinion poll indicating two outgoing TDs could struggle to be returned.

Independent Noel Grealish is on 7% in the Ipsos/MRBI constituency poll for TG4, and in danger of losing his seat. Independent Catherine Connolly, with 9% support, also has a battle on her hands to retain the seat she won in 2016, based on the TG4 figures.

Fine Gael’s two sitting TDs are in a strong position – Hildegarde Naughton (13%) is the most popular politician in the constituency, according to this poll, and Seán Kyne, the outgoing Government chief whip, (10%), has lost support but remains a contender.

One of the big surprises was the support for Niall Ó Tuathail of the Social Democrats – at 12% he is as popular and neck-and-neck with Fianna Fáil stalwart and sitting TD Éamon Ó Cuív, the poll indicates. Green Party candidate, City Councillor Pauline O’Reilly’s campaign will be buoyed by a 10% showing, which if replicated on polling day, would put her in the hunt for a seat.

With a small sample of 500, and a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, other contenders include: Ollie Crowe (FF) on 8%, Maireád Farrell (SF) on 7%, and Niall McNelis (Lab) on 5%.

As with all opinion polls, a major health warning applies to the latest TG4 offering. In the equivalent poll in 2016, Grealish enjoyed 7% support, the exact same as this poll, but he garnered over 11% of first preferences on election day and sailed in.

See full election coverage in this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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