Fine Gael faces massive fight to hold its seats after review

Date Published: 22-Aug-2012

The fallout from the carve-up of the Galway East constituency continues to have an impact on several candidates who remain puzzled about where their political futures lie.

An area stretching from Ballinasloe across to Dunmore has now been included in a new three seat Gawlay-Roscommon constituency and it has presented a dilemma for a number of potential candidates.

The changes have resulted in Galway East going from a four seat constituency to a three-seater and it is set to have a huge impact on Fine Gael in particular.

After the last general election Fine Gael had four seats between Roscommon and Galway East but come 2016, they could end up with just one.

Galway East easily delivered two for Fine Gael seats last time while the party also achieved two seats in the old Roscommon-South Leitrim constituency.

The fact that Roscommon is now in with part of Galway East and they are both three seat constituencies means that Fine Gael cannot even hope to repeat that performance.

Also the decision of Deputy Denis Naughten to leave the party over the Roscommon Hospital controversy has made it impossible for the party to even go close to last year’s achievements.

The Fine Gael party has been put in something of an unenviable situation. With Naughten gone and committed to standing as an independent next time out, they are left with three TDs covering Galway East and Roscommon with the knowledge that two of these may not be returned.

With Galway East being transformed from a four-seater to three seats, it is accepted that Fine Gael will only win one and in this regard the sitting Junior Minister for Education Ciaran Cannon is a raging hot favourite to be returned to Dail Eireann.

The former PD leader was coaxed into Fine Gael and the party hierarchy threw their weight behind him in an effort to get Cannon elected and this was achieved in convincing fashion as he received the second highest first preference vote in the 2011 election.

However, the candidate who topped the poll on that occasion is a lot less certain of his seat. Deputy Paul Connaughton jnr. had almost 2,500 votes ‘robbed’ from him in the constituency carve-up and has left him with something of a dilemma about where to run.

The party wants him to contest a seat in Galway-Roscommon but he would come face to face with his former party colleague Denis Naughten who would still mop up a large number of Fine Gael votes despite running as an independent.

While Connaughton jnr. says that he will announce his decision in September with regard to where he will be running, the smart money is on him remaining in Galway East where he will follow the 4,800 votes remaining and will hope to tap in on some of the 5,800 votes that party colleague Tom McHugh received in Tuam.

Of course there is the possibility that Tom McHugh may pose a challenge at convention to run on the Fine Gael ticket and he has proven in the past that he has strong delegate support.

Back in 2007 when Fine Gael wanted to run Dr. John Barton from Ballinasloe come hell or high water, McHugh came to the convention in Hayden’s Hotel with busloads of support and eventually had to be added to the ticket but not without a fight.

However, McHugh has lost a large chunk of his