Fine Gael can learn lessons from timing of UK election

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

A few days after this year’s British general election, there was a great analysis in The Sunday Times on the Conservatives’ strategy to win the election.

They realised quite early on that in order to come close to winning, they would have to take out their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats.

That was a tricky proposition. They had spent four years together in Government working as a partnership. David Cameron and Nick Clegg – initially at least – perfected that buddy-buddy thing.

But the portents weren’t great for the Lib Dems in the run-up to the election. They had been struck by the often fatal disease that visits the junior partner in a coalition; they had failed to make a sufficient impact.

Supporters believed they had betrayed or compromised principles. They were snuggling up too closely to their partners.

The Lib Dems had had a very good election in 2011 and had won a lot their seats at the expense of the Tories. So the Conservatives set about a very deliberate strategy to win those seats back and targeted the Lib Dems seats.

They included all the marginal ones obviously but also one where the other party held what looked like an unassailable majority.

The reality in British politics is when you are down you are really down. Everyone, except perhaps the Lib Dems, knew they were on their way to a pasting.

The Tories were ruthless. Whatever about the relationship that had been forged over the previous four years, when it came to the election it was everybody for themselves.

All bets were off. Friends were enemies. Political marriages quickly became estranged.

Reading it reminded me of the children’s tale of the gingerbread man. Having been created he runs away from home, full of arrogance and hubris. He arrives at the bank of a river and cannot cross.

A fox turns up and assures him he will help him cross the river. The gingerbread man is given assurances of his safety and is told to jump on the tail.

But as the water gets deeper the fox tells him to move, first to the back, then to the neck, then to the head and finally, just before they reach the other bank, to the nose.

They land safely but before the gingerbread man can do anything the fox flips him up in the air, catches him in his mouth, and eats him.

That was the parable, in precis, of the Tories and the Lib Dems.

There’s been a rake of speculation in recent weeks about the timing of the election here.

While the Government parties have consistently said March, there is unquenchable speculation that it might actually take place in November.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.