FG can have aspirations of an overall majority

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

I was one of the few who held fast that the general election would not be held in November, rather in the Spring. In the end, I was right – but only just.

Because I think those who predicted a November election were in the box-seat until the moment Enda Kenny stepped back from the brink and went for (probably) February. And that was very, very late.

You never fully know about these things but I’m inclined to believe those who suggest he himself wanted to pull the trigger for November but changed his mind at the last minute.

At this moment, the poll evidence suggests Fine Gael is going to do very well indeed in the general election.

Now my own view is if it had gone last month, it would have been close but no cigar.

But with momentum behind it so early, it now looks that it may be unstoppable. It has slipped very easily into the mantle of Fianna Fáíl, viewed as the natural party of government.

It’s an unusual election. There’s only one party that can say it has a biddable chance of becoming the next Government. That was also true for the last election.

Once the ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ silliness subsided, it became evident that there was only one party which could lead a government.

But the circumstances were so bizarre, and so frenetic, back in 2011 that nobody really thought too much about that.

The latest Red C poll last Sunday shows that that the situation is very similar now. But the prevailing circumstances are different.

The ship has been steadied. The economy is growing. Sure, there are crises: in housing, in health, and in Irish Water. But all are out-trumped by the ace card up the Government’s sleeve – and that is the economy.

At the moment, it looks very much like the juggernaut is accelerating. The only question is – who can stop Fine Gael from getting an overall majority?

Their figures are really good. At 31 per cent, the party looks poised.

In January, people will begin to see the good news from the Budget – a decrease in the USC, increases in child benefit and so on – in their pay packets.

It won’t be huge, but it will add at least a little heat to the feel-good glow that is beginning to be felt all around.

Political fates rest on the state of the public mood. It’s hard to judge, but when it begins to improve you can almost feel it. The mood-ometer for the past years has been rising without a shadow of a doubt.

The only party that is in a position to benefit in a big way from that is Fine Gael, although the Labour Party will undoubtedly get a bit of a bounce too.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.