FF will be looking for at least one new name to rebuild East fortunes

Date Published: {J}

If Fianna Fail in East Galway had sent a ‘Christmas wish’ to Santa, surely it would have been for a reverse in their downward trend in the constituency where they once totally ruled the roost.

It’s an area where they have seen their share of the vote slide consistently in the last three General Elections – followed by disaster in the Local Elections last June. This is, after all, a constituency where Fianna Fail were once likely to use the term ‘heartland.’

They held three Dail seats out of four there only three General Elections ago – Noel Treacy, Michael Kitt and Joe Callanan sitting on Dail seats in a constituency where Fine Gael were admittedly always battling to take one of those three seats.

It’s a constituency where Fianna Fail were once capable of getting well over fifty per cent of the vote – but in the last three General Elections their level of support fell from 48% (1997), to 46% (2002), and 39% (in 2007). And, what will really have set the alarm bells ringing, was a fall to 25% in the Local Elections of last June (a drop of 9%). In Ballinasloe, they are down to one County Council seat out of five, a loss of one seat compared to the 2004 Locals.

In Loughrea, they are down from two seats to one seat out of seven. In Tuam, they did well to hold on to their two out of seven. All of these districts in the East Galway Dail constituency.

Now, I know Fianna Fail in national politics will point to the significant defection in East Galway from FF of Paddy McHugh in the 2002 General Election. That was after FF made a haymes of the selection convention in turning down McHugh as a possible candidate. This was despite an open plea from delegates from the floor of the convention, to add McHugh to the ticket. McHugh stood as an Independent and was elected a TD.

In 2007, Paddy McHugh lost that seat – but Fianna Fail not alone failed to really challenge to get that Dail seat back, to make matters worse from the FF point of view, the seat went to Fine Gael (Ulick Burke securing a gain), and the Fine Gael vote went up almost nine per cent – to the point where they were running at 39 per cent, level with Fianna Fail.

As I said last week, many of the potential East Galway line-up for FF in the next General Election were present on the day when the new motorway stretch between Ballinasloe and Galway was opened.

Obviously, outgoing TDs Noel Treacy and Michael Kitt, were there, but also potential Dail candidates like Councillor Michael Connolly, and Councillor Mary Hoade – both of whom had to change their council area in the Local Elections, following a revision of the electoral areas, but both of whom came through the trauma to take their council seats in the Tuam district.

Another at the motorway opening was possible newcomer to the FF ticket for the General Election, Councillor Tomas Mannion. He survived the near FF wipeout in the Ballinasloe area. Both he and Councillor Michael Connolly would be competing primarily for votes in the Ballinasloe area, where Fianna Fail have taken a hammering since Joe Callanan lost his Dail seat in 2007.

This is also the area where Fine Gael have found a hell of candidate in Ballinasloe Cardiologist, Dr. John Barton, who took nearly 5,000 first preferences on his first attempt at the Dail and was a key player in Fine Gael gaining a seat in 2007.

Even though Fianna Fail have had a strategy of nominating the minimum number of candidates in recent years, in an effort to keep their vote ‘tight’ and maximise transferring between their candidates, they will have a vacancy anyway on the list of East Galway candidates whenever the next General Election comes along, because of former TD Joe Callanan, essentially, dropping out of politics since he lost his Dail seat in 2007. Callanan was on the FF ticket in 2007 with Noel Treacy and Michael Kitt.

After 2007, there was some pressure on Joe Callanan to possibly ‘save the FF bacon’ by standing in the Local Elections in the Ballinasloe area in 2009, but my impression is that Callanan may have had enough – especially when he failed to get one of Bertie Ahern’s Taoiseach nominations to the Senate after the 2007 General Election, despite decades of Callanan family service to Fianna Fail through Joe and Johnny Callanan.

For more read this week’s Connacht Tribune.