Evaluating all the options from election wreckage

World of Politics with Harry McGee

The political choice facing the parties would reminds you of the country man giving directions to a stranger that begin with the observation: “If I was going there, I wouldn’t be starting from here.”

The post-election landscape looks like a hurricane has passed through. The situation is stranger even than in 2011 when one of the great parties of the State plummeted from grace.

So there will be two stages to the process. The first is the immediate race. That will be a ‘who is the top dog’ competition between Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin which will be decided this week when the Dáil reconvenes and nominations are made for Taoiseach.

But that’s just ticking boxes; neither party is likely to command any extra support outside its own TDs, other than the seven Labour TDs who will support Enda Kenny’s nomination as taoiseach in a once-off arrangement.

Fianna Fáil might have had faint hopes of potential support from Independents and smaller parties. There are, for example, at least eight Fianna Fáíl gene-pool Independents.

The atmosphere at the party meetings last week could not have been more different. Fianna Fáil’s was bullish, Fine Gael’s bearish. Most of the discussion at the former was around Ceann Comhairle nominations although Barry Cowen got a very small tap on the wrist for saying Irish Water was a red-line issue.

At Fine Gael there were no recriminations for Enda Kenny. But I suspect that it was felt it was not the time. He is wounded now and it will be difficult to see how he can last. Simon Coveney apologised for his less than brilliant interview on Prime Time when he seemed row back on the Government position on Irish Water.

The other two aspects of note were that Michael Noonan said there would be an election within two years. The biggest criticism came from the quiet but authoritative Galway West TD Sean Kyne.

Martin and his colleagues in Fianna Fáil may feel that a coup is possible, but as one party figure puts it, for him to lead a government is “wishful thinking”.

As I see it there are a number of possibilities but none are ideal. Fine Gael could operate as a minority government; to do that it would need the support of Fianna Fáil.

But if the party were to lock in a respectable number of Independents and smaller parties into a Coalition or some copper-plated deal, it would give it more relative strength in dealing with its biggest revival.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.