Election result sees Sinn Féin at a crossroads too

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

The political focus for two months now has been firmly on the tedious process that might lead to a new Government – all of which has tended to overshadow somewhat the strange place that Sinn Féin finds itself in at this moment of time.

This inertia in the corridors of power left Sinn Féin with little to do other than complain – like the rest of us – about the endless talking and drawn-out delays.

And that’s as deflating as togging out and taking to the field, only to realise that the other side isn’t showing up today.

I was at the party’s Ard Fheis at the weekend and – in comparative terms – it was a subdued affair. Sure, the party faithful cheered to the rafters for Gerry Adams’ leader’s speech. But for the rest it was as exciting as looking at a floating race in an Olympic swimming pool.

Various reasons were posited for that. For one, it was the only Ard Fheis to take place after the general election, so there was no real goal in sight.

Of course, there are the Northern Assembly elections on May 5 but they don’t really register all that highly with the southern electorate or media.

The venue itself might have contributed – a little to vast and ‘establishment’ for a party that is still edgy compared to the rest. And it could also have to do with residual and lingering disappointment over its performance on February 26.

On the face of it, it was a good election. The party added an extra nine seats to take its total to 23. Compare it to the four miserable seats it won in 2007, less than a decade ago.  Factor in the real possibility of the party taking seven seats in the Seanad.

All the signs should be positive. Yet, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The party’s expectations were too high and amid the gains were a couple of big setbacks, no more than the loss of Pádraig Mac Lochlainn’s seat in Donegal.

One lesson the party should take from the exercise is not to rely too much on opinion polls conducted months before the election. They tend to overstate its support.

A much better indicator is the latest local election result – in 2014, it proved unerringly accurate as an indicator of support levels for the generals.

The first Sinn Féin Ard Fheis I covered was in Killinarden in West Tallaght in the mid-1990s. The party has moved a long way from there to the ritzy surroundings of the National Convention Centre.

While many of its delegates decried the “establishment” parties, the party is already an establishment party in the North and on an inexorable path to becoming one in the south.

That’s not saying that it will become a Tweedle-something party. Sinn Féin will never disown its past, although as the years pass it will become less relevant because it will be less proximate.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.