Economy on truth reveals an alternative world view

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

In these fledgling days of the Trump era, we now know that current affairs narrative can be moulded in any way you like so that it fits your world view – or indeed your prejudices.

So, given all the historic shifts taking place politically at present, how can this be deployed to find out how Ireland is faring? In other words, how are we going to do this year and into the future?

By simply scouring the same newspapers, and following the same news sources, you can interpret it in two ways.

The first is by relying on the current economic data, on growth forecasts, on the fact that the Government looks like it will survive for at least another year.

Things are looking up, you might conclude.

But then you read about Trump’s presidency and the impact that Brexit might have for the Irish economy; throw in growing industrial unrest, and the impact all of that has on consumer spending – and quickly you begin to see another theme emerge to suggest we’re all doomed.

So which do you believe? The optimistic view or the pessimistic view?

The trite (if probably correct) thing to say would be a combination of both because we know that some good things and bad things are going to happen.

But like so many things in the world – ranging from sport to politics to business to the outcome of RTE’s Dancing with the Stars – we feel compelled to make predictions as to the outcomes.

Do we know? No. Is there anything that should help us know? No. Do we still do it? Yes. Why? God knows.

The future remains unknown – but crystal ball-gazing is part of our human condition. We want to be able to ‘read’ the future to reassure us that what we have, or might have, in the present remains secure. Some people are motivated by fear, some are optimistic in outlook – they choose the divergent narratives, according to their own lights.

Take these three questions.

Who will be the next US President?

Will the British vote for Brexit?

Who will succeed Martin McGuinness when he retires as Northern leader of Sinn Féin?

If you had asked anyone a year ago to predict the answer, only a tiny proportion would have got two right, and nobody would have got all three correct.

You hear a lot about politicians and governments trying to control the narrative. We have seen it in action in the past week in the White House where Donald Trump and his team have brought the same aggression to government as they used on the campaign trail.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.