Doing the maths to secure a Dáil seat

City-man Niall Ó Tuathail munches on a bag of dried Dillisk in the front passenger seat of a Social Democrats’ branded white van.

Seaweed is his snack of choice and it supports industry on Inis Meáin, he says. “It’s addictive,” he smiles.

Driver Siobhán Cawley, his Sligo-born-Mayo-raised-Salthill-resident general election campaign manager, heads towards Cartúr Mór estate off Clybaun Road.

Ó Tuathail, from Dangan Heights and living in Shantalla, headed the Yes Equality in Galway West that successfully campaigned for a ‘yes’ vote in the gay marriage referendum.

That’s how Siobhán – “the real boss” – knows him. “It changed my life,” she says.

Like her, about a third of his canvassers are Yes Equality people; a third are interested in the fledgling party’s policies; and the rest are personal and family friends.

It’s Thursday evening, mid-campaign, but the local Social Democrats’ team has been out banging on doors since September. They’ve knocked on about 14,000 doors so far, he says, as they spread the word about the ‘purple revolution’.

En route from town to Knocknacarra, Ó Tuathail is upbeat about taking a seat. He understands the cynics and why “the press don’t give me a chance”.

But he was campaign manager for Stephen Donnelly, when he was elected as an independent TD in Wicklow in 2011. And he’s using the same complex arithmetic from that campaign to strengthen his argument.

Apparently, for every 5.8 doors they knock on, it translates to one vote. At every door, the canvassers gauge the reaction of the voters, and assess their likelihood to vote for Ó Tuathail based on a scale of one to five. Five is a definite ‘no-no’, and the respondent has indicated straight up they’re voting for another candidate. ‘One’ is a definite yes – that voter is going to give a first preference to Ó Tuathail.

But it gets complicated. Only half of the people who are ranked as ‘one’, will actually go out and vote. Those ranked in ‘two’ are leaning towards him but not definite.

He reckons 70% of those ranked as ‘two’ on the ‘Vote Ó Tuathail Probability Chart’ will actually be his voters, but only 65% of those 70% will actually go out and vote.

Just 10% of those ranked in the ‘three’ category, who are non-committal or haven’t made their minds up, according to this formula, will vote for Ó Tuathail. Those categorised as four and five are right-offs. Confused yet? Good!

He’s easier to comprehend – and believe – when talking passionately about policy. Much of the canvass is spent explaining who the Social Democrats are.

On the doorsteps, Ó Tuathail explains that the six-month-old party has three core pillars: it wants quality public services; openness and transparency in Government; and it’s pro business.

For more, read this week’s Galway City Tribune.