Dodgy gee-gees are a safer bet than our May weather

Country Living with Francis Farragher

The conspiracy theories about a good April meaning that ‘we’ve now had our Summer’ are nearly as prolific as the ones about who shot JFK, and after the battering dished out to us so far in May, the ‘summer sceptics’ are now in full voice about the dismal prospects that lie ahead for us through June, July and August.

The truth of the matter, based on all scientific evidence, is that we really don’t have much of a clue of what lies ahead, and the British Met Office has been very cagey in making any prediction even for a few weeks ahead, not to mind the summer.

In their monthly predictions for May, the UK Met Office, via the BBC forecast service, ask the simple question of themselves as to ‘how far out can we really forecast to?’. Reading between the lines, the answer is at best 10 days, and probably more realistically, five days in advance.

One of the points they make is that the five day predictions of 2015 are now as good as the one day forecasts were in 1975, so it is beyond all dispute that the quality of forecasting has improved, although there will always be times when the ‘big hitters’ in terms of meteorological predictions can get it wrong, spectacularly so at times, but in fairness not too often.

According to the BBC, their longer term forecasts – where they look ahead by over a week and maybe a month ahead – are based primarily on advances in computer models, atmospheric science, new satellite interpretations and what they call the skill of ‘probabilistic forecasting’. And if you’re not confused enough, all of this has to be analysed in ‘a statistical way’.

The UK Met Office is at pains to point out that those models cannot tell us that there will be ‘sunshine on one day’ or ‘rain on some other day’, but they can provide some kind of basis for predicting general weather patterns that could arise based on past information.

What the meteorological scientists ‘latch onto’ from those models, according to the BBC are ‘little anomalies’ that indicate certain conditions may be on the way. These anomalies, if spotted again, can then provide a guide as to what may lie ahead over the coming weeks, or possibly months. The more computer model simulations available to the scientists, the more confidence they can have, as regards how future weather patterns play out.

Without any shred of doubt, this is all very scientifically based and founded on the most credible of statistical information but yet where the UK and Ireland are situated – on the eastern fringe of the Atlantic Ocean – there is just too much geographic volatility to ever make forecasting an exact science. Every so often they are going to get it wrong.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.