Crunching the Galway numbers ahead of General Election 2020

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee|@gmail.com

Wasn’t it Tipp O’Neill, the US speaker of the House, who once said “All politics is loco”? Well, not quite. It was all politics is local. But there ain’t too much difference between them.

And now, with 2020 spreading out in front of us, I’m going both loco and local with predictions of how the Galway constituencies might pan out.

First to Galway West, the biggest constituency in the province. It was once Fianna Fáil heartland and a bit of a lonely outpost for Fine Gael. All that was reversed in 2011 and Fine Gael still holds an advantage here. I think that status quo will remain.

At the moment, there are two Fine Gael TDs, Sean Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton; one Fianna Fáil Deputy Éamon Ó Cuív; and two Independents, Catherine Connolly and Noel Grealish.

We can say a few things with near certainty. The first is that Éamon Ó Cuív will top the poll – and, of the five seats, one will go to Fianna Fáil, one will go to Fine Gael and there will be an Independent.

The irony in 2016 is that Fianna Fáil actually got a marginally higher share of the first preference vote than Fine Gael but ended up with only one seat. Both parties ran three candidates.

Fine Gael was helped by the fact that all three candidates were relatively even, where Fianna Fáil’s votes were very biased towards Ó Cuív rather than his colleagues, John Connolly and Mary Hoade.

Besides, Fianna Fáil picked up fewer transfers than any other party. If it has any hope of getting two elected, there will need to be a bit of levelling up, and Ollie Crowe will need to be much closer to Ó Cuív in first preferences.

I just don’t see that happening. The two Fine Gael TDs are strong and Naughton is one of those candidates who is a magnet for transfers.

As is Catherine Connolly, who more than doubled her votes during the fourteen counts to edge out Trevor Ó Clochartaigh. Given that she has performed solidly as a TD, she will be there or thereabouts again.

Sinn Féin came within a whisker of a seat in 2016, but it’s hard to see them in contention this time – but the Greens are coming into this in optimistic mood.

Pauline O’Reilly was elected to the west ward of Galway City Council on the first count, one of two Green councillors in the city.

And given the Green surge, she has a fair chance of a seat, but would need to gouge into the vote share of Connolly and Naughton if she were to be successful.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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