Coalition negotiations like a slow bicycle race

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

Dickensian scholars might view the interminable talks on the formation of a new Government as the Irish political version of Jarndyce versus Jarndyce.

That was the amazing fictional court case that featured in Charles Dickens’ Bleak House. Nobody could remember when the proceedings started and nobody was quite sure if they would every end. They continued day after weary day after weary day.

We are told that the pace of talks should ‘accelerate’ this week when Micheál Martin and Enda Kenny meet after the Dáil again fails to nominate a Taoiseach.

But it’s not like Usain Bolt is going to turn up on the plinth to give the whole thing a bit of zip; this slow bicycle race will continue.

The unthinkable option, of course, is a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition. There’s been some talk in the past few days of a partnership government, as opposed to a coalition government.

What is the difference? Well partnership seem to provide for Ministers from both parties so it’s essentially a coalition by another name.

At this moment in time, it looks like Fianna Fáil won’t buy into it.

The upside of a Grand Coalition – by whatever name you care to call it – is that it will provide a government with the potential to last a good deal of the five-year term. It will also bring two parties together that will be close together in terms of ideology.

If the economy does well, it is not inconceivable that both of the big parties could do well.

The downside for the two parties involved is electoral vulnerability. If the economy falters at all, they will let the main opposition party in and that will be Sinn Féin.

That said, Sinn Féin has a lot of growing up to do and will not attract widespread support unless enough people are convinced the party can act responsibly in government.

Why the party slid back towards the end of this year’s campaign can be attributed to doubt by waverers about the party’s credentials on the economy. The person who was lacking in that regard was Gerry Adams. The party will need a change in leadership to mount a credible and serious challenge to enter government.

But Sinn Féin would make gains in any scenario where it was the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil, in particular, could find itself very vulnerable as the (slightly) smaller party in government, and one whose members felt betrayed by it going into government with its traditional adversary.

While we are at it, let’s kill the myth (and cliché) that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.