Political World
Budget was always set to be more bland than brave
World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com
We play the same game every year in the run-up to the Budget – endless speculation about what will be in and what won’t be in. And there are always leaks but last year we had a torrent.
This year has been different again; if you examine the three-page “confidence and supply” deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil there is a specific reference to “no surprises” in the Budget.
So before Michael Noonan and Paschal Donohoe uttered a syllable on Tuesday afternoon, we all kind of knew what was coming.
They had about €1.2 billion to swill around, most of which went on spending. On the tax side, there was an incentive for first-time house buyers (harshly criticised by Fianna Fáil for targeting the demand side rather than the supply side).
There was also some reductions in USC (half a percent shaved off three rates); relief for the self-employed; a reduction in the rates of CGT for businesses being sold; and upward changes to thresholds for inheritance tax.
Perhaps the biggest story on the spend side was a universal childcare package, worth over €100 million.
Most families, with children in care for 40 hours a week, are now entitled to an extra €900 each year. That rises to €8,000 for the least well-off. It was more generous than predicted.
There was last minute wrangling over the commencement date of the €5 increase for pensioners, carers and those suffering from disabilities. However, despite threats from Fianna Fáil, there was compromise, with the increase kicking in a little later in the year.
The reason for that was that if it had commenced on January 1 it would have broken the bank for Donohoe. By delaying its introduction he could get the costs down for 2017. When the full-year cost kicks in in 2018, all things being equal, there will be more money in the economy (and in the Budget) to comfortably accommodate those increases.
The only ‘aul reliable’ that got a kicking was tobacco with the price of a packet of 20 cigarettes increased by 50 cents. There was also funding to recruit more Gardaí, teachers and frontline health staff.
The whole thing was more or less out there for the past few weeks, though there was some horse-trading over details. Fianna Fáil needed to get its spake in (it will claim credit for a lot of the education sections).
So too did the Independents and the Alliance specifically secured a reduction in prescription charges for the over-70s after a last-minute request ahead of the budget.
The likes of Sean Canney and Kevin Boxer Moran also made sure that Programme for Government items relating to the West of Ireland, particularly to do with flooding and rural renewal, were looked after.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
Academically, politics is described as a science. But in the real world, it’s more of an art – and one of the big decisions a Government has to make is to decide when to call an election.
Will they see out the full term, or will they go early – either to mitigate the damage they will ship, or to secure a victory before things go awry, or the economy takes a dip, or some kind of controversy erupts?
Timing is everything.
And there’s a bit of art to that – not to mention a lot of luck. If you call it early and win big, you’re a genius. If you call it early and lose, you are the political version of the village fool.
Charlie Haughey was a poor judge of the public mood. Twice he called snap elections and on both occasions they backfired. Haughey succeeded Jack Lynch as Taoiseach in late 1979 and did not – technically – have his own mandate. He tried to remedy that by calling an election in 1981. But it recoiled. Ray MacSharry warned him not to hold it during the H Block hunger strikes when republican prisoners were dying each day. He did not listen to the advice and found himself out of office.
After his return to power in 1987, Haughey tired of presiding over a minority government that kept on losing votes in the Oireachtas (the opposition won nine private members motions).
So he called a snap general election and it backfired. Fianna Fáil lost seats and had to broker a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats and his long-standing political adversary Dessie O’Malley.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
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World of Politics with Harry McGee
I was cycling down Mount Street in Dublin on Tuesday. It’s a wide esplanade that links the Grand Canal with Merrion Square. The street is a mixture of fine Georgian buildings and modern office blocks.
About half-way down is the office of the International Protection Office, which deals with asylum seekers who have arrived in the country.
Needless to say, the office has been overwhelmed in the past year. Besides an estimated 80,000 refugees who have arrived from Ukraine, there have been about 20,000 people from other parts of the world who have arrived into Dublin (mostly) claiming asylum.
The numbers peaked around Christmas, but they have been falling a little. In January, more than 1,300 people arrived seeking asylum but the numbers fell back to 831 and 858, in February and March respectively.
They are still huge numbers in a historical context.
So back to my cycle on Tuesday. I knew that some asylum seekers were camping outside the International Protection Office, but I was taken aback by how many. There were six tents lined up on the pavement directly outside. Then on the ramp that led down to the basement carpark on the side of the building, there were about another 20 tents.
It looked like what it was, a refugee camp in the middle of Dublin’s business district. If you pan out from Mount Street, you will find tents here and there in nearby streets and alleys. There were a good few tents in an alleyway off Sandwith Street about 500 metres away.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
World of Politics with Harry McGee
God that was a dramatic and historic weekend in England, wasn’t it? So much excitement, so much change, so much hype, so much out with the old and in with the new, and what looks like the coronation of a new leader. Yes, the local elections in Britain were something else weren’t they!
Apologies for not going on about King Charles III but the contract I signed when I became a lifelong republican forbids me to discuss the topic!
I know the British local elections sound a bit boring by comparison, but the results were stunning.
The Conservatives lost nearly 1,000 seats, the British Labour Party gained almost 500 and both the Lib Dems (with 350 gains) and the Greens (gaining over 200) also had amazing days at the polls.
It was Labour’s best day since 2002 but its victory was only partial. The Greens and the Lib Dems actually made gains at the expense of Labour in more affluent areas, and in parts of Britain where there were high numbers of graduates.
It was in the Red Wall constituencies in the North of England where the Labour recovery was strongest. These are working class constituencies with pockets of deprivation where people voted for the Labour Party forever. But all of those constituencies voted for Brexit and then voted for the Tories in the next general election. Labour is now winning back some of those votes.
Local elections are classified as second-tier elections which essentially means – from a national perspective – they are not life-or-death affairs, and not everything turns on them. Of course, it’s really important to have good local representation. But they are not an amazing weather vane for who rules the country.
For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.
Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App
Download the Connacht Tribune Digital Edition App to access to Galway’s best-selling newspaper.
Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
Or purchase the Digital Edition for PC, Mac or Laptop from Pagesuite HERE.
Get the Connacht Tribune Live app
The Connacht Tribune Live app is the home of everything that is happening in Galway City and county. It’s completely FREE and features all the latest news, sport and information on what’s on in your area. Click HERE to download it for iPhone and iPad from Apple’s App Store, or HERE to get the Android Version from Google Play.
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