Battle lines begin to firm up as election looms on horizon

World of Politics with Harry McGee – harrymcgee@gmail.com

The touted meeting between Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin this week was always going to disappoint given all of the hype that surrounded it in advance. It’s all a bit academic we have an ‘early’ election, or one later in the spring – because either way, we know we are in the end-game of this Dáil.

The only thing we don’t really know is how close. But in reality it’s only a matter of a few short months between early and late elections.

Some of my colleagues put a lot of emphasis on Leo Varadkar’s insistence over Christmas that Fianna Fáil guarantees his government would not fall on a confidence motion.

This addressed the delicate balance in the Dáil where Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil now have an identical number of seats.

If the awkward Fianna Fáil TD, John McGuinness, made good on his word and voted against the Fine Gael-led Coalition in a no-confidence motion, that would lead to the fall of the Government if Fianna Fáil did nothing to defend it.

Hence, Varadkar’s insistence on some guarantee. In his letter to Martin, he wrote: “I think it is reasonable of me to ask that you formally secure the support of all your TDs for this arrangement or agree to vote with the Government, where necessary, rather than abstain. This is the only way we can both be sure that it is sustainable.”

One interpretation of this was an insistence on Fianna Fáil voting for the government.  A number of commentators believed Varadkar was making Martin an offer he had no choice but to refuse, thus forcing a general election.

My own sense is that a more practical arrangement would be found. In other words, Martin would make sure McGuinness was whipped into line.

Besides, Varadkar had specified a number of priorities including negotiation a deal on a future relationship with the UK after Brexit; restoring power-sharing in the North; reforming the Local Property Tax; and reforming the way in which TDs and Senators claim for expenses and allowances.

All of that suggested to me that both leaders were content with an April or a May election. But until they actually state it, you always run the risk of being wrong.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.

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