A world of vagaries and forecasts fraught with risk

Country Living with Francis Farragher

Although many years ago, I ground out some kind of degree from the then UCG with geography in its final year, I’m no meteorologist, and it is a science that requires quite an amount of study as well as a good working knowledge of scientific principles and research.

Even with all the academic qualifications, computer models and satellite feeds it is still a science fraught with difficulty as even the gentle movement of a weather pattern can make the difference between having a dry day and a wet one.

A case in point is the Met Éireann report for the month of October just gone by. These monthly documents are excellent summaries of our weather patterns with a pile of information assimilated from all of Met Éireann’s weather stations dotted around the country.

Last month – almost everywhere – it was exceptionally dry with some parts of the country recording only just over an inch of rain over the 31 days of October. So, one might assume that the summary for all over the country was ‘dry, dry, dry’.

Not the case though if you were hiding out in Valentia, Co. Kerry, for the 10th month of the year. Over the course of October, the station at Valentia recorded 186.4mms. or 7.3 inches and they got most of this over a two-day period, on the third and fourth days of the month.

Now, one might assume that just over 100 miles to the east of Valentia in the Cork town of Fermoy, that it might have been a wettish month as well, but far from it. The Moore Park station at Fermoy was in fact the driest place in Ireland over the course of the month with just 27.9mms. of rainfall (just over an inch) for the entire month.

On the Monday of October 3rd, a whopping 105.5mms. (over 4 inches) was recorded at Valentia as a frontal system approaching from the Atlantic got stuck over the Kerry outpost, and dropped its full payload over them.

We’ve all heard of blocking highs and how wonderful they are in terms of keeping the low pressure from our shores but if you’re located at the edge of the blocking high when a major frontal system approaches, it just puts the brakes on and stays over that region.

So, the problem for the forecasters – and especially so when they try to sum up future conditions in a quick sound bite – is that there is no catch-all phrase that will cover weather conditions not alone across a region, not to mind a country.

October though was a lovely month and it is a lift to the mind and spirit when a time of the year that we normally associated with dying growth and withering leaves, delivers a pleasant spell of weather.

For more, read this week’s Connacht Tribune.